Effects of climate change on maize production, and potential adaptation measures: a case study in Jilin Province, China

Wang, Meng; Li, Yinpeng; Ye, Wei; Bornman, Janet F.; Yan, Xiaodong

doi:10.3354/cr00986

Cited by 73 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Xiong et al (2007) showed that China's maize production would suff er a negative eff ect under both A2 and B2 scenarios, especially in major maize planting areas and CO 2 fertilization eff ect was positive for rain-fed maize but negative for irrigated maize. Wang et al (2011) reported that the average maize yield in the western and central regions…”

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confidence: 99%

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Lin

Zhu

et al. 2017

Agronomy Journal

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Northeast China (NEC) is an important region for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China, and is the country's most signifi cant commercial food base. However, NEC is also one of the areas that are most signifi cantly aff ected by climate change in this country. Maize is sensitive to climatic changes, and to develop eff ective strategies for guaranteeing regional food security, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of the impacts of climate change and the eff ectiveness of adaptation measures in NEC. In this study, the Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize v4.5 model, coupled with newly released data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was applied to simulate maize yields for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and to estimate the eff ect of CO 2 fertilization and the eff ectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in NEC. Th e results indicated a trend of a continuing decline in maize yield for both RCP scenarios, and the decrease in maize yield under RCP8.5 was predicted to be greater than that under RCP4.5. Th e eff ect of CO 2 fertilization was forecast to be too small to off set the negative impacts of climate change. Th ree adaptation measures-changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars, and breeding new cultivars with high thermal time requirements-could mitigate negative climate change impacts to varying degrees; switching cultivars may exert the most signifi cant eff ect on increasing maize yields. Core Ideas• Th e CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate the impacts of climate change under RCP scenarios and the eff ectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in Northeast China.• Maize yield would decline under the future climatic conditions if no adaptation measures were adopted.• Changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars and breeding new cultivars could mitigate the negative impacts of climate change to varying degrees.

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Lin

Zhu

et al. 2017

Agronomy Journal

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“…The scientific community has successfully evaluated and validated DSSAT crop model for maize varieties in various regions (Samuhel et al 2007, Maytin et al 1995; potential adaptation measures estimated with DSSAT crop model were used by Wang et al (2011), evapotranspiration rates by Tao et al (2010), maize productivity and water use by Tao et al (2010), and earlier sowing dates and new varieties by Kapetanaki et al (1996). The main goal of this study was to quantify climate change effect on maize production using A crop model results may indicate the limits and vulnerability for certain crop production in climate change conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

10.5937/ratpov50-4941 = Climate change impact on maize yield in the region of Novi Sad (Vojvodina)

Jančić¹

2013

Ratar i povrt

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Summary: PDSSAT 4.0 is a crop model commonly used to quantify the climate change impact on agriculture production. The model objective is to predict the duration of growth, average growth rates and the amount of assimilate partitioned to the economic yield components of the plant. A model structure is comprehensively described in this paper. The input parameters were used from NSSC 640 maize nine year field experiment from Rimski Šančevi in Novi Sad and climate data were given by Republic Hydrometeorology Service of Serbia (RHSS) for current climate, as well as for 2030 and 2050 using three climate models (ECHAM5, HadCM3 and NCAR-PCM) under two scenarios (A1B SRES and A2 SRES).

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“…Despite researches on the need to adapt to climate change (Field et al, 2014;Brooks et al, 2006;, and the impacts of climate change on agricultural production (Wang et al, 2011;Di Falco et al, 2011;Moore et al, 2009;Parry et al, 2004), particular studies on the adaptation steps, and strategies specific to the coffee agroforestry systems are insufficient. This research was, therefore, intended to identify appropriate adaptation strategies that counter the Impacts, and strengthen farmers' adaptive capacity.…”

Section: Problem Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on the agro-ecological innovation of coffee agroforestry systems in Central Kenya

Gebreeyesus¹

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Effects of climate change on maize production, and potential adaptation measures: a case study in Jilin Province, China

Cited by 73 publications

References 42 publications

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

10.5937/ratpov50-4941 = Climate change impact on maize yield in the region of Novi Sad (Vojvodina)

Impact of climate change on the agro-ecological innovation of coffee agroforestry systems in Central Kenya

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