IMPORTANCEThere is currently no system to predict 90-day morality among patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) after the completion of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).
OBJECTIVETo validate the accuracy of a predictive scoring system for 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who have completed CCRT.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis prognostic study included 16 029 patients with HNSCC who completed CCRT between January 2006 and December 2015. Data were extracted from the Taiwan Cancer Registry Database. A risk scoring system was developed based on significant risk factors and corresponding risk coefficients. Data analysis was conducted from June 2018 to February 2019. EXPOSURES Mortality within 90 days of completion of definitive CCRT.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe 90-day mortality rate after completion of CCRT and the accuracy of the scoring system, based on a comparison of mortality rates between training and test data sets. RESULTS Among 16 029 patients with locally advanced HNSCC, 1068 (6.66%; 1016 [95.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 55.11 [11.45] years) died before reaching the 90-day threshold, and 14 961 (93.4%; 14 080 [94.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 52.07 [9.99] years) survived. Multivariable analysis revealed that being aged 50 years or older (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.263; 95% CI, 1.104-1.445; P < .001),