Effect of Weather on COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality in Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic with more than 4 million confirmed cases and over 280,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. Evidence exists on the influence of temperature and humidity on the transmission of related infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study therefore explored the effects of daily temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Lagos state, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Correlation analysis was performed using incidence data on COVID-19 and meteorological data for the corresponding periods from 9th March to 12th May, 2020. Our results showed that atmospheric temperature has a significant weak negative correlation with COVID-19 transmission in Lagos. Also, a significant weak negative correlation was found to exist between temperature and cumulative mortality. The strength of the relationship between temperature and the disease incidence increased when 1 week and 2 weeks’ predetection delays were put into consideration. However, no significant association was found between atmospheric humidity and COVID-19 transmission or mortality in Lagos. This study contributes more knowledge on COVID-19 and will benefit efforts and decision-making geared towards its control.

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: A comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

“…Except for Indonesia, which has a comparable population size with Nigeria, the population gure for each of the other seven countries was extraordinarily lower. Due to environmental factors like temperature and humidity [11,12], one would have expected the pattern of the disease spread in Nigeria to be similar to that of Mexico, Bangladesh, South Africa and Indonesia, all things being equal. Thus, it is tempting to conclude that low testing capacity in Nigeria is responsible for variability in the observed pattern of COVID-19 cases compared to the four countries.…”

“…Aside the case reporting, a community testing approach to identify more cases of COVID-19 was instituted early in South Africa which countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon did not do within the study period. In addition, one cannot overrule the mark differences in atmospheric and environmental conditions between countries as another pertinent reason [11,12].…”

“…The differential in the scope of testing and atmospheric conditions in different countries should not be overruled while interpreting our ndings. This is because there is some evidence on the relationship between weather conditions and transmission risks of COVID-19 [11,12]. Inaccessibility to data on socio-demographic pro le and health history of the COVID-19 patients and survivors limits the opportunity to do some statistical and mathematical modelling.…”

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: A comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

“…Aside the case reporting, a community testing approach to identify more cases of COVID-19 was instituted early in South Africa which countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon did not do within the study period. In addition, one cannot overrule the marked difference in atmospheric and environmental conditions between countries as another pertinent reason [11,12].…”

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

“…Only Indonesia had a population size that was similar to that of Nigeria while the other countries had a considerably lower population than that of Nigeria. Mexico, Bangladesh, South Africa and Indonesia had environmental factors such as temperature and humidity that were comparable to that of Nigeria [11,12]. Thus, the reasons that could explain the differences in disease spread pattern between these countries and Nigeria is not immediately clear except for the differences in COVID-19 testing rate.…”