The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: A comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is an emerging global public health crisis. The increase in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria is worrisome vis-a-vis its large and dense population. This study aims at assessing the pattern of spread in the first 120 days of COVID-19 case confirmation in Nigeria, and its comparison with seven other countries. Methods: Data extracted from the World Bank’s website were used for the descriptive assessment and modelling of COVID-19 disease using the first 120 days of the index case in Nigeria and seven other countries. Linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential methods of regression model were used to fit the data (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 growth pattern in Nigeria was similar to that of Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun; Nigeria’s COVID-19 daily death distribution was comparable to six of the other seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p<0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p<0.001) after the lockdown relaxation. Across all the countries investigated, the cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, all things being equal, a 3-month (30 September 2020) prediction of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p<0.001). Conclusions: An improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is realised.

Comparison of prediction accuracies between mathematical models to make projections of confirmed cases during the COVID-19 pandamic by country/region

“…[9] Althouhg Liu et al [41] found that the CNICs are well fitted by an exponential function in the 31 provincial-level regions in China, Lynch and Gore [42] in their research found that exponential growth is not the best representation of case growth during early onset. Similarly, Adebowale et al [43] in their study on the spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days in Nigeria and 7 other countries found that the cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 CNICs across all the countries, but there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Accordingly, the exponential growth is not totally suitable for the COVID-19 situation.…”