Background:
Rubber powdery mildew disease (Oidium heveae) is a serious threat to the natural rubber production in some rubber developing regions of the world. Many factors affect the powdery mildew disease. As many of these influencing factors found in previous studies are strongly correlated, unraveling their effects and their relative importance is a challenge. We assessed the three main groups of factors: temperature variables, the timing of leaf phenologies, and the duration of leaf development. In total, we investigated the effects of forty-one factors on the infection rate of powdery mildew of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) by using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression methods over 9-year records (2003–2011).
Results:
Among these factors, we found that the most influential variables were the temperature variables (winter and spring mean temperature, and daily temperature differences in winter) and the duration of leaf development to maturation, from copper brown stage to leaf aging, which explained 72% and 58% of the variations in the infection rate. We found the controlling role of winter mean temperature, for the first time, on the infection rate of powdery mildew, and the duration of leaf maturation was also influenced by the winter mean temperature.
Conclusions:
The controlling role of winter temperature may have directly increase the infection rate when winter temperature is high, and indirectly increase the infection rate through the prolongation of the leaf maturation duration, although the duration itself, from copper brown to leaf aging had smaller influences. We detected a warming trend of the winter temperatures from 2003 to 2011, which indicates that the rubber plantations will experience increasing of infection rate of powdery mildew if the winter warming continues.