Effect of climate on malarial vector distribution in Monsoon Asia: coupled model for Ecophysiological and Climatological Distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg)

Ohta, Shunji; Kaga, Takumi

doi:10.3354/cr01087

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Kashiwada and Ohta [] applied this method to simulate mosquito's development because the environment of mosquito juveniles' habitat is almost identical to that of ponded shallow water. Furthermore, Ohta and Kaga [] used the water balance model proposed by Tao et al . [] for calculating soil moisture in mosquito habitat.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

2017

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Predictions of the temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes are an important issue for human health because the response of mosquito populations to climate change could have implications for the risk of vector‐borne diseases. To elucidate the effects of climate change on mosquito populations inhabiting temperate regions, we developed a Physiology‐based Climate‐driven Mosquito Population model for temperate regions. For accurately reproducing the temporal patterns observed in mosquito populations, the key factors were identified by implementing the combinations of factors into the model. We focused on three factors: the effect of diapause, the positive effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity, and the negative effect of rainfall as the washout mortality on aquatic stages. For each model, parameters were calibrated using weekly observation data of a Culex pipiens adult population collected in Tokyo, Japan. Based on its likelihood value, the model incorporating diapause, constant carrying capacity, and washout mortality was the best to replicate the observed data. By using the selected model and applying global climate model data, our results indicated that the mosquito population would decrease and adults’ active season would be shortened under future climate conditions. We found that incorporating the washout effect in the model settings or not caused a difference in the temporal patterns in the projected mosquito populations. This suggested that water resources in mosquito habitats in temperate regions should be considered for predicting the risk of vector‐borne diseases in such regions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Soil water content was calculated as the difference between water input (precipitation and snow melt) and output (evapotranspiration), and runoff was defined as the overflowing water, assuming soil as a bucket (Figure ). In the present study, soil water content and runoff were calculated following Ohta and Kaga [] (Figure and Text S2).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

2017

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“…To estimate the geographical distribution of vector species throughout India, all climate data were taken from the same CRU grid data [21]. Monthly values of climate data were converted to daily values using linear interpolation to ensure that the daily values were consistent with monthly averages or total values [16]. In addition, to calculate the soil water content, data for the plant-extractable water capacity of soil for each area (spatial resolution of 0.5° longitude × 0.5° latitude) were obtained from reference [22].…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP, ) developed a new approach and generated maps for contemporary geographic distributions of all dominant mosquito vectors of human malaria globally in order to review the bionomics for each species in detail [15]. On the other hand, considering the effect of climate variables on the growth of malaria mosquito vectors, we have developed a new model coupled with the ecophysiological and climatological distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg), which can describe growth of Anopheles mosquitoes using simple climate factors [16]. The ECD-mg model successfully described the spatiotemporal distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in monsoon Asia across cool-temperate to humid tropical regions [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, considering the effect of climate variables on the growth of malaria mosquito vectors, we have developed a new model coupled with the ecophysiological and climatological distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg), which can describe growth of Anopheles mosquitoes using simple climate factors [16]. The ECD-mg model successfully described the spatiotemporal distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in monsoon Asia across cool-temperate to humid tropical regions [16]. The results obtained from the ECD-mg model predict the potential distribution of mosquitoes according to ecological and climatic factors, but additional variables, including human population, hygiene, and land-use change, contribute to determining the actual mosquito distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecophysiological and Climatological Effects on Distribution of Vector Species and Malaria Incidence in India

Kaga

Ohta

2012

IJERPH

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The magnitude of regional malaria risk is dependent primarily on the dynamics and distribution of the vector species, which are determined mainly by climate conditions. A coupled model with ecophysiological and climatological factors was developed to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of the five species of dominant malaria vectors in monsoon Asia. Here, we examined how the potential distribution obtained from the model could explain trends in malaria incidence observed in India, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of malaria in Asia. Most notably, there was a significant positive correlation between annual malaria incidences and the maximum generation number of vectors for each state (p < 0.001). Malaria incidence tended to increase exponentially as vector generation number increased. In addition, the interannual variation in observed regional malaria incidences was synchronized with that of the potential number of vector generations. The observed seasonal peak of malaria incidences corresponded closely to the simulated appearance period of vector species, except for intensively irrigated areas that experience anthropogenic impacts on hydrologic conditions. Simulated vector distributions effectively expressed spatial and temporal prevalence of malaria in India. This novel approach to modeling based on vector ecology is an effective method for assessing malaria risk.

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Effect of irrigation systems on temporal distribution of malaria vectors in semi-arid regions

Ohta

Kaga

2013

Int J Biometeorol

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Previous research models have used climate data to explain habitat conditions of Anopheles mosquitoes transmitting malaria parasites. Although they can estimate mosquito populations with sufficient accuracy in many areas, observational data show that there is a tendency to underestimate the active growth and reproduction period of mosquitoes in semi-arid agricultural regions. In this study, a new, modified model that includes irrigation as a factor was developed to predict the active growing period of mosquitoes more precisely than the base model for ecophysiological and climatological distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg). Five sites with complete sets of observational data were selected in semi-arid regions of India for the comparison. The active growing period of mosquitoes determined from the modified ECD-mg model that incorporated the irrigation factor was in agreement with the observational data, whereas the active growing period was underestimated by the previous ECD-mg model that did not incorporate irrigation. This suggests that anthropogenic changes in the water supply due to extensive irrigation can encourage the growth of Anopheles mosquitoes through the alteration of the natural water balance in their habitat. In addition, it was found that the irrigation systems not only enable the active growth of mosquitoes in dry seasons but also play an important role in stabilizing the growth in rainy seasons. Consequently, the irrigation systems could lengthen the annual growing period of Anopheles mosquitoes and increase the maximum generation number of mosquitoes in semi-arid subtropical regions.

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Effect of climate on malarial vector distribution in Monsoon Asia: coupled model for Ecophysiological and Climatological Distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg)

Cited by 5 publications

References 39 publications

Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

Ecophysiological and Climatological Effects on Distribution of Vector Species and Malaria Incidence in India

Effect of irrigation systems on temporal distribution of malaria vectors in semi-arid regions

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