Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK

Medlock, Jolyon M.; Leach, Steve

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(15)70091-5

Cited by 287 publications

(227 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…High temperatures and rainfall contribute to the formation of mosquito breeding sites and change the life cycles of these insects, which is consistent with results obtained by Eisen, Bolling, Blair, Beaty and Moore (2008), OPS (2008) and Gage, Burkot, Eisen and Hayes (2008). Accordingly, vectorborne diseases are also highly sensitive to changes in weather and climate (Medlock & Leach, 2015); there is no doubt that the results are extrapolated to the adult stage, not only in mosquitoes but also to other groups such as nematocerans with aquatic stages. Confirming once again the principles/precepts of continuous exchange of substances, energy and information with the surrounding medium (continuous parts), where all metabolic processes are interrelated.…”

Section: Ist=0 If Noc Is An Even Number and Ist=1 If Noc Is An Unevensupporting

confidence: 87%

Modeling of Equivalent Effective Temperature and its possible incidence on larval density of Anopheles mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Villa Clara province, Cuba

Duarte

Alarcón-Elbal

Rodríguez³

et al. 2017

RBT

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The wind chill or Equivalent Effective Temperature (EET) is the thermic sensation that a person feels when being exposed to a certain combination of temperature from the air, relative humidity and wind velocity. The objective of this investigation was directed to determine the possible incidence of the EET upon the larval density of Anopheles mosquitoes in Villa Clara province, Cuba. The Climatological data were compiled from the Yabú station in Santa Clara, and a total of 5 370 measurements were included in a database every three hours, using the aggregate function of the Statistical Package of Social Science software version 13 (SPSS), from January 1st, 2011 to September 30th, 2013. A long term forecast (1 year of advance) was made to obtain EET and the Anopheles larval density in the locality of Santo Domingo was modelled. These entomological data were taken at the same time but monthly, so the EET data were converted to monthly scale to be correlated with the monthly data of the larval density. The result was a 97.1 % of variance with a standard error (SE) of 3.57 °C for the model of the EET with a year of anticipation; therefore, the tendency in time was significant. The modeling also included the Anopheles larval density of mosquitoes in Santo Domingo, Villa Clara province, observing an increase of the EET, while the Anopheles mosquito larvae also increased. The most important variables in the model were the EET that were back in 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 16, 24, 40 for the previous year; that is to say 2 920, 2 921, and so on, which explained a strong contagion among the data. EET correlation compared with itself in previous year was high; therefore, it may be used as a predictable variable. The anophelinic density in Santo Domingo explained the 66 % of the variance, with a SE of 0.66 larvae.m-2. The tendency of the Anopheles larval density was to diminish. In conclusion, EET has an important impact in larval density of Anopheles with EET increase associated with larval density increase.

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Section: Ist=0 If Noc Is An Even Number and Ist=1 If Noc Is An Unevensupporting

confidence: 87%

Modeling of Equivalent Effective Temperature and its possible incidence on larval density of Anopheles mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Villa Clara province, Cuba

Duarte

Alarcón-Elbal

Rodríguez³

et al. 2017

RBT

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“…Due to the high variety of species that inhabit wetlands, these landscapes are specifically robust against single pests and thus act as natural pest control (Alberti 2015) as the survival rate of the ecosystem is higher when not all species are affected. At the same time, being wet habitats and charac- with ++ is very good/high, + is good (high), ± is medium, − is poor/low and −− is very poor/low terised by closeness to water, they provide ideal breeding grounds for the spread of invasive species such as the tsetse fly, Aedes aegypti or Amenophelis that inflow from south and are carrier of so far unknown illnesses such as yellow or dengue fever or types of ticks bringing meningitis and encephalitis as well as bringing endemic malaria possibly back to Europe (Medlock and Leach 2015). Thus, while using wetlands as a nature-based solution to flood alleviation, air cooling and pollutant fixers to address those threats, they can also create trade-offs and disservices (Döhren and Haase 2015).…”

Section: Introduction: What Is the Value Of Wetlands And Riparian Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Wetlands and Riparian Forests as a Nature-Based Solution for Climate Change Adaptation in Cities and Their Surroundings

Haase

2017

Theory and Practice of Urban Sustainability Transitions

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Wetlands and riparian forests belong to the most productive, but also the most vulnerable, ecosystems in urban regions and cities due to their complex watershed system, often very high biodiversity and the pressure from urban land use and surface sealing. Wetlands and floodplain forests are often highly valued recreational areas, providing many benefits for urban dwellers, such as fresh air, moisture, oxygen and biogenic essentials as well as many cultural and place-based values. Wetlands and riparian forests are very efficient spaces for water and matter regulation, pollutants fixation and flood water retention. Thus, particularly for dense urban areas, they represent almost perfect nature-based solutions for risk mitigation and adaptation concerning both climate extremes: flood and drought. Moreover, they can serve as a buffer against high air temperatures and provide wetness during heat waves. However, urban wetlands and riparian forests are often endangered by urbanisation pressure, land take for construction purposes and pollution. This chapter provides arguments that urban wetlands being a nature-based solution for cities facing climate change and presents design options to expand and even create such wetlands in cities where remnants are no longer available.

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“…In the UK, the annual number of confirmed Lyme disease cases is over 1000 and still increasing in some areas each year [2]. The causative agents of Lyme disease belong to a species complex of spirochaete bacteria named Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

Gilbert

Harrison

et al. 2016

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes.

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Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK

Cited by 287 publications

References 57 publications

Modeling of Equivalent Effective Temperature and its possible incidence on larval density of Anopheles mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Villa Clara province, Cuba

Modeling of Equivalent Effective Temperature and its possible incidence on larval density of Anopheles mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Villa Clara province, Cuba

Urban Wetlands and Riparian Forests as a Nature-Based Solution for Climate Change Adaptation in Cities and Their Surroundings

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

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