Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview

Goujon, Anne; Lutz, Wolfgang; Kc, Samir

doi:10.4054/demres.2015.33.47

Cited by 29 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…If these measures truly approximate the mortality perceptions held by surviving adults in a population, they may possess more predictive power vis-à-vis fertility behaviors than the IMR. These measures could be leveraged to shed light on fertility decline and the unique patterns of family change that characterize sub-Saharan Africa (48)(49)(50). The simultaneous deployment of these maternal cumulative prevalence measures alongside standard annualized measures will be valuable descriptively for scholars of global health and analytically relevant for research on inequality, mortality trends, child bereavement, and population dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maternal cumulative prevalence measures of child mortality show heavy burden in sub-Saharan Africa

Smith‐Greenaway

Trinitapoli

2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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We advance a set of population-level indicators that quantify the prevalence of mothers who have ever experienced an infant, under 5-y-old child, or any-age child die. The maternal cumulative prevalence of infant mortality (mIM), the maternal cumulative prevalence of under 5 mortality (mU5M), and the maternal cumulative prevalence of offspring mortality (mOM) bring theoretical and practical value to a variety of disciplines. Here we introduce maternal cumulative prevalence measures of mortality for multiple age groups of mothers in 20 sub-Saharan African countries with Demographic and Health Surveys data spanning more than two decades. The exercise demonstrates the persistently high prevalence of African mothers who have ever experienced a child die. In some African countries, more than one-half of 45-to 49-y-old mothers have experienced the death of a child under age 5, and nearly two-thirds have experienced the death of any child, irrespective of age. Fewer young mothers have experienced a child die, yet in many countries, up to one-third have. Our results show that the mIM and mU5M can follow distinct trajectories from the infant mortality rate (IMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR), offering an experiential view of mortality decline that annualized measures conceal. These measures can be adapted to quantify the prevalence of recurrent offspring mortality (mROM) and calculated for subgroups to identify within-country inequality in the mortality burden. These indicators can be used to improve current understandings of mortality change, bereavement as a public health threat, and population dynamics.child mortality | sub-Saharan Africa | bereavement D ramatic reductions in the infant mortality rate (IMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) over the past half-century are among the global health community's most notable achievements (1). The trends are clear, and the message is positive: the world today is healthier and safer for young people than ever before.Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced some of the swiftest reductions in the IMR and U5MR (2). However, the all-time low IMRs and U5MRs conceal the pervasiveness with which contemporary populations experience children die. The IMR and U5MR provide annualized snapshots of a population's mortality regime; these measures are, by design, amnesiac to any legacy of higher mortality. Yet, African mothers today had children under higher mortality conditions, and these conditions persist in surviving mothers' lives. Moreover, because each live birth exposes mothers to the risk of a child dying, high fertility multiplicatively increases African mothers' lifetime likelihood of experiencing a child's death. The clustering of deaths among siblings in high-mortality countries is well documented (3), yet we lack population-level measures that summarize the mortality burden from the perspective of parents.We present population-level mortality measures that estimate the proportion of mothers in a population who have experienced the loss of a child. Specifically, we cal...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maternal cumulative prevalence measures of child mortality show heavy burden in sub-Saharan Africa

Smith‐Greenaway

Trinitapoli

2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…The first is sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility remained very high for a long time and only started declining appreciably in the 1990s. However, the stalled fertility decline (Goujon, Lutz, and KC 2015) observed in some African countries since the turn of the 21st century can be explained by low levels of socioeconomic development, which are only slowly rising. More puzzling is the case of Arab countries, 3 where in the 1980s women had exceptionally high numbers of children, particularly in relation to the general level of socioeconomic development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt

Zalak¹,

Goujon²

2017

DemRes

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“…However, there is evidence that the decline might be stalling. Goujon, Lutz and KC (2015) identify Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia as countries where the fertility decline has stalled, while Bongaarts (2008) concludes the same about Ethiopia and Uganda (using a slightly different methodology). The cause of this stalling is the subject of considerable speculation but cannot be identified with much certainty given the numerous determinants of fertility and the fact that fertility rates differ significantly within the same country depending on income level, education and place of residence.…”

Section: Expand Innovative and Flexible Social Insurance Arrangementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2017

Social Protection in East Africa

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opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the member countries of the OECD or its Development Centre.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ISBN 978-92-64-27421-1 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-27422-8 (PDF)The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Photo credits: Cover © design by the OECD Development CentreCorrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.

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Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview

Cited by 29 publications

References 16 publications

Maternal cumulative prevalence measures of child mortality show heavy burden in sub-Saharan Africa

Maternal cumulative prevalence measures of child mortality show heavy burden in sub-Saharan Africa

Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt

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