Economics and Politics in the 1984 American Presidential Election

Kinder, Donald R.; Adams, Gordon; Gronke, Paul

doi:10.2307/2111157

Cited by 153 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Some scholars have argued that community-level economic conditions will be more strongly associated with voting behavior (Feldman 1982;Kinder, Adams, and Gronke 1989) than individual economic distress. However, Kramer (1983) points out that changes in an individual's financial circumstances can be affected by politically relevant factors such as government policy as well as politically irrelevant factors such as exogenous shocks or life cycle considerations (retirement, for example) -and that for this reason one should not necessarily expect economic voting to be purely sociotropic.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump

Green¹,

McElwee²

2018

Preprint

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Debates over the extent to which racial attitudes and economic distress explain voting behavior in the 2016 election have tended to be limited in scope, focusing on the extent to which each factor explains white voters' two-party vote choice. This limited scope obscures important ways in which these factors could have been related to voting behavior among other racial sub-groups of the electorate, as well as participation in the two-party contest in the first place. Using the vote-validated 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, merged with economic data at the ZIP code and county levels, we find that racial attitudes strongly explain two-party vote choice among white voters -in line with a growing body of literature. However, we also find that local economic distress was strongly associated with non-voting among people of color, complicating direct comparisons between racial and economic explanations of the 2016 election and cautioning against generalizations regarding causal emphasis.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump

Green¹,

McElwee²

2018

Preprint

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“…(Sears & Funk, 1990;Citrin & Green, 1990;McClosky & Zaller, 1984;Walstad, 1997) Others focus on a narrower range of positive economic beliefs, primarily output, unemployment, and inflation. (Mutz & Mondak, 1997;Krause, 1997;Holbrook & Garand, 1996;Haller & Norpoth, 1994;Mutz, 1993;MacKuen, Erikson, & Stimson 1992;Kinder, Adams & Gronke, 1989;Conover, Feldman & Knight, 1987;Conover & Feldman, 1986;Kinder & Mebane, 1983). The SAEE also primarily deals with positive, not normative questions, but it has a much more diverse pool of topics.…”

Section: The Survey Of Americans and Economists On The Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

How do voters form positive economic beliefs? Evidence from the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy

Caplan

2006

Public Choice

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Beliefs about normative economics appear to be primarily determined by sociotropic rather than egocentric variables. (Sears & Funk, 1990; Citrin & Green, 1990) Using the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy, the current paper finds that the same holds for positiveeconomic beliefs in most – but not all – cases. This hinges on whether a question is “causal” or “non-causal”: Causal beliefs depend on sociotropic variables, especially education and ideology; non-causal beliefs, in contrast, depend on egocentric variables, with income growth playing the leading role. This is consistent with a cognitive model where actors answer easier questions using personal experience, and harder ones with ``off-the-shelf" theories. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006Economic beliefs, Sociotropic voting, Voter cognition,

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“…This equation does a great job explaining the vote choice, correctly predicting almost 93% of the actual vote decisions with a pseudo R 2 (Nagelkerke) of .84. All of the political attitudes have their predicting sign and all but two-personal financial well-being (which is rarely significant in a vote equation: see Kinder, Adams, andGronke 1989, or Kinder andKiewiet 1979) and attitudes toward government supported health insurance.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Older but Wiser? Effects of Age on Political Cognition

Lau

Redlawsk

2008

The Journal of Politics

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In experimental studies of voter's information processing, Lau and Redlawsk (2006) found one control variable to have pervasive effects in their analyses: age. Age was associated with less information search, less memory, less accurate memory, and a lower probability of making a correct vote. Reexamining those experimental studies, we find that inexperience with computers and slower manual dexterity are both associated with less information access, but controlling on these factors, age continues to have a strong negative effect on information processing. In other more familiar situations, however, political knowledge can accumulate with greater experience, as it does with memories for actual presidential candidates and political parties, although this effect reverses at very advanced ages. Age has minimal effects on the probability of correct voting until the mid-60s, but we observe very sharp dropoffs thereafter. The normative implications of these findings for democratic representativeness are discussed.

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Economics and Politics in the 1984 American Presidential Election

Cited by 153 publications

References 18 publications

The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump

The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump

How do voters form positive economic beliefs? Evidence from the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy

Older but Wiser? Effects of Age on Political Cognition

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