Economic voting in Spain: A 2000 panel test

Fraile, Marta; Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.01.003

Cited by 37 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…One exception is the article by Fraile and Lewis-Beck (2010), which examines a panel survey, with an instrumental variables technique to "objectify" the subjective economic measures. They find "significant and sharp economic effects on the vote choice."…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures, cross-time

Fraile¹,

Lewis‐Beck

2012

Electoral Studies

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures, cross-time

Fraile¹,

Lewis‐Beck

2012

Electoral Studies

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“…Studies estimating functions for aggregate incumbent vote shares have shown them to be negatively affected by trends in unemployment and inflation (Bosch & Riba, 2005). Similarly, in studies using individual-level data, Spain emerges as a case where individual voting decisions for or against the incumbent seem to be influenced by the perceived state of the economy (Fraile & Lewis-Beck, 2010;Lancaster & Lewis-Beck, 1986), and by objective economic indicators (Fraile & Lewis-Beck, in press). Furthermore, this relationship seems to be particularly strong when looked at in comparative terms (Duch & Stevenson, 2008;LewisBeck, 1988; Van der Brug, van der Eijk, & Franklin, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Forecasting Spanish elections

Magalhães

Aguiar‐Conraria

Lewis‐Beck

2012

International Journal of Forecasting

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a b s t r a c tThe behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing body of literature. However, no models have appeared to explain or forecast national election outcomes. This gap in the research contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done in other leading Western democracies. Here, we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises a considerable level of prediction accuracy for legislative and European election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the November 2011 legislative election, then discuss the model and the forecast in light of what the actual election result turned out to be.

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“…Studies of economic voting usually include long-term anchoring forces such as social background, left-right ideology and policy positions to rule out possible alternative explanations. So-called revisionists even argue that long-term predispositions (for example, ideology and values) shape economic evaluations (see Fraile and Lewis-Beck, 2010). In electoral research in Finland, left-right position and issue preferences are highly relevant as they tend to predict voting behaviour (Grönlund and Westinen, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Economic voting in Finland before and after an economic crisis

Söderlund¹,

Kestilä‐Kekkonen²

2014

Acta Polit

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This study examines the importance of retrospective economic voting in Finland. More specifically, it investigates if the magnitude of the economic vote was greater after the global financial crisis that unfolded in 2008-2009, as well as if perceptions of the economy had an independent influence on vote choice even when controlling for long-term social cleavages and political predispositions. Using post-election survey data from the 2007 and 2011 parliamentary elections, the first empirical models suggest that the incentives to punish government parties were stronger in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The impact of economic evaluations on vote choice, however, did not remain significant when controlling for long-term anchoring forces related to social background and political predispositions.

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Economic voting in Spain: A 2000 panel test

Cited by 37 publications

References 13 publications

Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures, cross-time

Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures, cross-time

Forecasting Spanish elections

Economic voting in Finland before and after an economic crisis

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