Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures, cross-time

Fraile, Marta; Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.012

Cited by 23 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…Second, to provide an alternative examination of the impact of sociotropic economic perceptions of the past econo my, we estimated another modified version of Model 3 that replaced each respondent's individual retrospection with the average retrospection for that respondent's survey year. This aggregate retrospection reflects the central tendency in economic judgments, independent of error introduced by individual respondents' motivated perceptions of economic conditions (Fraile & Lewis-Beck, 2012). This analysis produced results very similar to those reported in Model 3 in Table 1.…”

Section: Robustness Checks: Other Operationalizations Of Economic Conditionssupporting

confidence: 68%

Retrospective economic judgments predict individual-level changes in vote preference in the US

Bai

Federico

2021

J. Soc. Polit. Psych.

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While many studies have investigated what predicts citizens’ vote preferences, less is known about what predicts change in citizens’ vote preferences over time. This paper focuses on the role of judgments about national economy in the recent past (i.e., “sociotropic economic retrospections”). Two longitudinal studies show that sociotropic economic retrospections (along with partisanship, ideology, and whether incumbent is running for re-election) at a given time point predict within-person changes in vote choice over time. Furthermore, cross-lagged panel analyses found that sociotropic economic retrospections and political preferences may have reciprocal effects on each other. Together, these results illustrate the temporal dimension of economic voting by suggesting that sociotropic economic retrospections not only predict votes at single points in time, but also individual-level shifts in vote preference over time. As such, the association between sociotropic economic retrospections and vote preference is more dynamic than past literature suggests.

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Section: Robustness Checks: Other Operationalizations Of Economic Conditionssupporting

confidence: 68%

Retrospective economic judgments predict individual-level changes in vote preference in the US

Bai

Federico

2021

J. Soc. Polit. Psych.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In general, evaluation of the economic performance and attribution of the responsibility of different governments and parties are among the main determinants of voting choice. This attribution of responsibility is especially important given the economic crisis, as citizens could blame -or exonerate -different parties for the situation (Fraile & Lewis-Beck 2012). In the 2014 contest, those who voted for the incumbent PP and for UPyD were less likely to attribute responsibility for the economic situation to the PP and the EU.…”

Section: South European Society and Politics 17mentioning

confidence: 99%

Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014 European Election in Spain

Cordero

Gibert

2015

South European Society and Politics

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“…The electoral success of Podemos and other left-wing populist parties such as the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) in Greece or the emergence of La France Insoumise (Rebellious France) is among the indirect political consequences of the Great Recession in Europe (Armingeon and Guthmann, 2013;Fernández-Villaverde et al, 2013;Gougou and Persico, 2017). This success has been linked to a critical view by the electorate on the consequences of the economic crisis (Fraile and Lewis-Beck, 2012;Bellucci, 2014;Magalhães, 2014), which has been at the root of erosion of trust in the institutions and traditional parties. Podemos grew up from the heat of the social movements linked to the Anti-Austerity 15-M Movement in Spain (also known as the Indignados Movement) and the disenchantment with politics at a time of deep recession, relative deprivation and social grievances (Portos, 2020).…”

Section: What Happened? Explaining the Rise Of Podemos Ciudadanos And Vox Podemosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three Is a Crowd? Podemos, Ciudadanos, and Vox: The End of Bipartisanship in Spain

2021

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The traditional Spanish imperfect bipartisanship and the alternation in power that emerged in the early 80s between the center-left PSOE and the conservative PP have shifted towards a multiparty system after the emergence of three new parties. At first, as a result of the economic and political representation crises, Podemos (We Can) emerged at the 2014 European Parliament elections. This left-wing populist party managed to grow rapidly among the dissatisfied voters, reaching the third electoral position in the 2015 general elections. In the same contest, the liberal center party Ciudadanos (Citizens) became the fourth political force boosted, among other reasons, by notorious corruption scandals involving high-rank PP’s officials and the process of secession in Catalonia. Finally, driven by the same secession process and thanks to the removal from the office of PP’s Prime Minister after a motion of no confidence, the support for the populist radical right Vox also experienced a boost, winning 15 percent of the seats in Parliament in the general elections of November 2019. In this research, we describe the contexts which facilitated the irruptions of these new parties, analyze their impact on the Spanish party system, and study their current voters’ profiles.

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Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures, cross-time

Cited by 23 publications

References 10 publications

Retrospective economic judgments predict individual-level changes in vote preference in the US

Retrospective economic judgments predict individual-level changes in vote preference in the US

Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014 European Election in Spain

Three Is a Crowd? Podemos, Ciudadanos, and Vox: The End of Bipartisanship in Spain

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