Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change

Abstract

In addition to expanding agricultural land area and intensifying crop yields, increasing the global trade of agricultural products is one mechanism that humanity has adopted to meet the nutritional demands of a growing population. However, climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production and, therefore, food supply and global markets. Here we quantify the structural changes in the global agricultural trade network under the two contrasting greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by coupling seven Global Gridded Crop Models and five Earth System Models to a global dynamic economic model. Our results suggest that global trade patterns of agricultural commodities may be significantly different from today's reality with or without carbon mitigation. More specifically, the agricultural trade network becomes more centralised under the high CO 2 emissions scenario, with a few regions dominating the markets. Under the carbon mitigation scenario, the trade network is more distributed and more regions are involved as either importers or exporters. Theoretically, the more distributed the structure of a network, the less vulnerable the system is to climatic or institutional shocks. Mitigating CO 2 emissions has the co-benefit of creating a more stable agricultural trade system that may be better able to reduce food insecurity.

Potential Influence of Climate Change on Grain Self‐Sufficiency at the Country Level Considering Adaptation Measures

“…Because climate change occurs gradually over time, economic agents would be able to adapt to climate change by adjusting their production and consumption in response to market signals induced by climate change impacts. Hence, it is important for policy makers to support and sustain a well-functioning market conveying signals of climate change impacts between economic agents, as suggested by previous studies (e.g., Blandford et al, 2014;Porfirio et al, 2018;Stevanović et al, 2016). Proper measures could include subsidies to agricultural adaptation measures, development of substitutes for grain in food production and consumption, and encouragement of free international trade, particularly on the background of the on-going trade war between the two largest economies of the USA and China.…”

Evaluation of water resources management strategies to cover the shortage in future demands using the WEAP model in high Andean areas

“…The climatic conditions considered, following the FAO recommendations [17] and the worst scenario RCP 8.5, are:…”

“…Except for the period from March to November, with a deficit of up to 40% for the dry period. The projection for the year 2049 that considers more unfavorable climatic conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) [17], the deficit is of up to 60%.…”

A review of global-local-global linkages in economic land-use/cover change models

“…That literature is traditionally based on global gridded analyses and the developments in global circulation models undertaken in support of climate-related research (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 2014). The initial demand for global-gridded LUCC projections was supported by downscaling regional results to the grid-cell level, allowing for the exploration of GLG-LUCC linkages at much higher resolutions (Reilly et al 2012, Doelman et al 2018, Porfirio et al 2018. In addition to downscaling results, much of the literature also focused on upscaling local effects of climate impacts on land-based activities from global grids (Rosenzweig et al 2014).…”