Potential Influence of Climate Change on Grain Self‐Sufficiency at the Country Level Considering Adaptation Measures

Abstract

In recent decades, grain self‐sufficiency has been a key security issue for certain countries, such as Russia, China, India, and France. Climate change may affect agricultural production and possibly influence the grain self‐sufficiency of some countries, threatening their food security. This article provides an updated integrated assessment of the impact of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency at the country level. The study links climatic variables projected by global climate models to economic variables simulated by a global multiregion multisector economic model. Although climate change may considerably reduce land productivity, our simulation results show that climate change in the long term modestly impacts regional grain self‐sufficiency, as the direct effects on yield are largely canceled out by changes in grain production via adaptation measures taken by producers in response to market signals. Behavioral changes of consumers also contribute modestly to cancel out the adverse impact on land productivity. In the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the adverse impact of climate change on land productivity in 2100 may reach to 25% of the current level, but declines to 5% when changes in production and consumption are considered, thus indicating the role of long‐term adaptation by economic agents.

High planting density induces the expression of GA3-oxidase in leaves and GA mediated stem elongation in bioenergy sorghum

“…Increased productivity due to the conversion of additional land for agricultural production, irrigation, high nitrogen fertilizer utilization and genetic gains associated with the ‘green revolution’ are slowing and insufficient to meet projected needs 5 – 7 . Moreover, increasing temperature and drought associated with climate change are expected to create additional production challenges, especially for grain crops 8 . Moreover, the increases in agricultural productivity need to occur while reducing or eliminating agriculture’s greenhouse gas footprint, currently 23% of total greenhouse gas emissions 9 .…”

Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming

“…In GRACE, the income of the wheat sector is represented by the valued added of the sector, which is influenced by changes in wheat yields, wheat prices, and quantities and prices of other inputs in the wheat production. The model has been widely employed to investigate the global/regional agricultural economy 41 and climate policy. 42 We calibrate GRACE by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) v9 database 43 with 2011 as the base year, which is consistent with the period of our present-day climate scenario.…”

Economic Damage of Climate Change: How Far is it From the Physical Damage?

“…We examine how the different assumptions affect the estimates of economic damage due to climate change by using a static multi-sector, multi-regional global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GRACE (Aaheim and Rive, 2005, Aaheim et al, 2018, Carattini et al, 2019, Wei et al, 2019. The model has been applied to studies on climate impact, adaptation, mitigation, and related policy analysis (e.g., Aaheim et al, 2012, Glomsrød et al, 2013, Underdal and Wei, 2015, Glomsrød et al, 2016, Wei et al, 2017, Orlov et al, 2020.…”

“…The model has been applied to studies on climate impact, adaptation, mitigation, and related policy analysis (e.g., Aaheim et al, 2012, Glomsrød et al, 2013, Underdal and Wei, 2015, Glomsrød et al, 2016, Wei et al, 2017, Orlov et al, 2020. In this study, we adopt the version of GRACE in Wei et al (2019), which is based on the 2011 global economic data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database v.9 (Aguiar et al, 2016). In the model, the world is divided into 140 regions and a regional economy consists of 14 production sectors including four agricultural sectors, two food sectors, one manufacturing sector, one transport sector, one services sector and five energy sectors.…”