Economic Performance and the Determination of Presidential Elections in the U.S.

Burdekin, Richard C. K.

doi:10.1177/056943458803200212

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…For example, Pantzalis et al (2000) found that stock market prices tend to respond to new information regarding political decisions that may affect a nation's fiscal and monetary policy. Other studies investigated the effects of economic events on presidential voting and the impact of different political structures to various economic variables (see, for example, Atesoglou and Congleton, 1982;and Burdekin, 1988). Bratsiotis (2000), for example, examined the inflationary consequences of elected political parties in Greece before and after its commitment to the Single European Act (SEA) 1 in 1986 and found that inflation plays a significant role in the political partisan cycle in Greece after the introduction of SEA.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the Ljung-Box (LB) test statistic rejects the hypothesis that all autocorrelations up to 10 lags are zero for both the returns and squared returns which justifies the use of ARCH-type models for the variance. (10) are the 10 lags Ljung-Box statistics calculated for the returns and the squared returns, respectively. The LB statistic is distributed as 2 with n degrees of freedom; where n is the number of lags being tested.…”

Section: The Athens Stock Exchangementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This result can be attributed to the fact that the election result is officially announced at the end of the following working day (Monday in our case) and, therefore, the stock market incorporates that information one day later. Moreover, the negative market reaction on day 0 can be also attributed to the outcome of the elections which leads to the formation of a government with marginal MP majority 10 ,9signaling to the market that the winning party is prone to populist pressures by labor unions and other social forces. On the other hand, the positive reaction of the ASE before the Election Day can be attributed to the formation of investors' expectations that the new government will fulfill its pre-electoral promises and a new era of economic prosperity will begin.…”

Section: Arch-type Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Political elections, abnormal returns and stock price volatility: the case of Greece

Koulakiotis

Papapanagos

Papasyriopoulos³

2016

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

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The impact of the Greek political elections on the return and volatility of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) is investigated using both the standard event study methodology and various univariate GARCH models. The empirical results reveal positive pre-and post-election abnormal returns, but negative on the day of the election. Strong evidence is also found that suggests that the election outcome significantly affects the ASE return; however, the evidence is rather limited for the ASE volatility. The empirical findings raise doubts about the efficiency of the Greek stock market and might have important implications for investors with respect to decisions regarding entering and/or exiting the market or investment strategies around time periods where political elections are going to take place.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Athens Stock Exchangementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Arch-type Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Political elections, abnormal returns and stock price volatility: the case of Greece

Koulakiotis

Papapanagos

Papasyriopoulos³

2016

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

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“…In fact, studies that use the growth rate in output or in per capita output during the election year as the main economic determinant of the incumbent government's electoral success, either finding or assuming growth in earlier years to be irrelevant, abound in the literature. Beside Fair (1978Fair ( , 1982Fair ( , 1988Fair ( , 1999Fair ( and 2004, these include time-series studies by Lewis-Beck and Rice (1984a), Burdekin (1988), Gleisner (1992), Chappell and Suzuki (1993), Rosenthal (1993, 1996), Alesina and Rosenthal (1995) and LewisBeck and Tien (1996) on U.S. presidential elections, by Kramer (1971), Lewis-Beck and Rice (1984b), Kiewiet and Udell (1998), and Grier and McGarrity (2002) on U.S. congressional elections, by Lewis-Beck (1997) on French presidential elections, Akarca and Tansel (2006) on Turkish parliamentary and local administration elections, cross-state time-series study by Peltzman (1987) on U.S. gubernatorial elections, cross-state study by Blackley and Shepard (1994) on a U.S. presidential election, election, pooled cross-national time-series studies by Powell and Whitten (1993) Peltzman (1990) analyzing U.S. presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial election outcomes, using pooled crossstate time-series data, and Abrams and Butkiewicz (1995) analyzing the outcome of a U.S. presidential election, using cross-state data, concluded that voters consider information from the incumbent's whole term, not just its final year. Their results nevertheless indicate that voters give relatively more weight to recent past of an administration than its distant past.…”

Section: Comparisons With Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social and economic determinants of Turkish voter choice in the 1995 parliamentary election

Akarca

Tansel

2007

Electoral Studies

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.

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“…In order to assess economic crisis we focused on inflation and economic growth (cf. Burdekin, 1988;Fair, 1978;Harrington Jr., 1993;Powell & Whitten, 1993). As measures of leader endorsement we focus on two variables: Re-election success and presidential greatness.…”

Section: Study 1: Archival Study Of Us Presidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Motivation in Words: Promotion- and Prevention-Oriented Leader Communication in Times of Crisis

Stam¹,

Knippenberg

Wisse

et al. 2016

Journal of Management

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Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. MOTIVATION IN WORDS: PROMOTION-AND PREVENTION-ORIENTED LEADER COMMUNICATION IN TIMES OF CRISISWhen during the 2008 US presidential elections a financial crisis erupted, the US people overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama, the candidate who had adopted the slogan "change we can believe in" and who emphasized hope and optimism when he addressed the people. In line with this example, research demonstrates that situational uncertainty or crisis strongly influences the endorsement of the more charismatic or decisive leadership styles and that inspirational communication is at the heart of these styles (see Bligh clear what leaders should communicate in order to be endorsed in difficult times. We argue that regulatory focus (Higgins, 1987(Higgins, , 1997 of leader communication, which we refer to as regulatory orientation, is an important determinant of leadership endorsement during crisis.,Studies on the role of regulatory focus in leadership mostly seem to focus on regulatory fit effects (Avnet & Higgins, 2006;Cesario, Grant, & Higgins, 2004). Regulatory fit theory posits that persons who's regulatory focus is sustained by the environment, will be experiencing a situation of "feeling right". If individuals feel right they become more persuaded, more motivated, more engaged and their evaluations of the elements that sustain their regulatory focus intensify. Hence, followers may perceive a leader as effective and motivating when the regulatory orientation of the leader's communication fits followers' regulatory focus (cf. Stam, van Knippenberg & Wisse, 2010a). Based on this argument, some researchers have speculated that leaders who use prevention-oriented communication may be especially endorsed in times of crisis because the negative affect and uncertainty associated with crisis induce a prevention focus in MOTIVATION IN WORDS 3 followers and prevention-oriented leader communication sustains a prevention focus (cf. Bruch, Shamir, & Eilam-Shamir, 2007;Stam et al., 2010a).In the current research we challenge this idea. We acknowledge that the uncertainty and negative feelings engendered by crises may induce a prevention focus in individuals, but based he regulatory focus literature (e.g., Hamstra, Sassenberg, van Yperen, & Wisse, 2013;Johnson, Smith, Wallace, Hill, & Baron, 2015) we argue that fit caused by prevention-oriented communication during crisis serves to intensify the uncertainty and negative feelings related to the crisis. This will lead to less motivation to realize the...

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Economic Performance and the Determination of Presidential Elections in the U.S.

Cited by 7 publications

References 4 publications

Political elections, abnormal returns and stock price volatility: the case of Greece

Political elections, abnormal returns and stock price volatility: the case of Greece

Social and economic determinants of Turkish voter choice in the 1995 parliamentary election

Motivation in Words: Promotion- and Prevention-Oriented Leader Communication in Times of Crisis

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