Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

Solberg, Birger; Moiseyev, Alexander; Kallio, Maarit

doi:10.1016/s1389-9341(03)00022-4

Cited by 49 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Finally, tree species composition may change as deciduous tree species expand northward (Lindner et al 2010), although tree species composition in managed forests are mostly determined by planting and seeding. Impact on forestry A higher wood production will increase profits from wood and paper products (Solberg et al 2003, Trømborg et al 2008. It may also result in intensified forest management with shorter rotations, more fertilizers, use of more southern provenances, and new tree species (Table 2), leading to increased forest fragmentation (Kellomäki et al 2008) and local species losses.…”

Section: Changes In Provisioning Services and Projected Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Jansson¹,

Keskitalo²,

Vlasova³

et al. 2015

E&S

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Aspholm. 2015. Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north. ABSTRACT. Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.

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Section: Changes In Provisioning Services and Projected Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Jansson¹,

Keskitalo²,

Vlasova³

et al. 2015

E&S

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“…This result is confirmed by other studies in other developed regions of the world, and shows that the final socioeconomic impacts are strongly conditioned on market behaviour, which may be interpreted as adaptation. Solberg et al (2003) use a regional model for timber markets to study the effects of an increase in supply of timber, with a resulting drop of timber prices in Europe. They show that the output in western parts of Europe will increase, while they forecast a reduction in the eastern parts.…”

Section: Regional Modelling Studies Of Impacts On Forestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

Aaheim

Chaturvedi

Sagadevan

2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed priceassumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

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“…These models have the same basic structure as GTM (the Global Trade Model), developed at IIASA and outlined by Kallio et al (1987), and further developed and applied on the Finnish forest sector by Kallio and Ronnila (1992) and Ronnila (1995). The European model, described by Kallio et al (2004), and applied by Solberg et al (2003), forms the most recent model development in Europe. A mathematical description of NTM II is provided by Bolkesjø (2004).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most studies are based on complex models of demand, supply and trade relations over various geographical areas. Zhu et al (1999), Solberg et al (2003) and Trømborg et al (2000) are recent long-run forest sector market projections where the timber markets are explicitly addressed, all at a global level. A common experience from many of these studies seems to be that capacity changes form a key factor which affects the projections significantly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting pulpwood prices under different assumptions on future capacities in the pulp and paper industry

Bolkesjø

2005

Silva Fenn.

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Capacity changes in the pulp and paper industry affect demand for pulpwood and thus pulpwood prices. This paper analyzes the impacts on roundwood prices in Norway of two possible capacity changes (one new machine and one close-down) that currently are high on the agenda in the Norwegian paper industry, and assesses the generality of the results obtained from these case studies. The two cases are implemented exogenously into a regionalized partial equilibrium forest sector model, and the capacity change scenarios are compared with a business as usual scenario assuming no demand shocks. The projected pulpwood prices change significantly in regions near mills where capacity shifts, at least for the close-down case, but only moderately at an aggregated national level. The reduction in prices under the close-down studied is higher than the price increase from the possible capacity increase case. The asymmetric price responses projected for the two case studies are supported by sensitivity analyses on other regions and cases (technologies). For the capacity increase case it is shown that the level of the projected pulpwood price is sensitive to assumptions on base-year prices and transport costs of imported roundwood, but the magnitudes of the price increases projected as a result of increased demand are less affected by these assumptions.

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Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

Cited by 49 publications

References 4 publications

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

Projecting pulpwood prices under different assumptions on future capacities in the pulp and paper industry

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