Economic growth and crime: Is there an asymmetric relationship?

Goulas, Eleftherios; Zervoyianni, Athina

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.014

Cited by 31 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The relationship between crimes and economic variables is an expanding field of research. Empirical studies suggest that crime would have detrimental effects on economic activity (e.g., Carboni and Detotto 2016;Detotto and Otranto 2010) and that variations in crime would even have an asymmetric impact on the economy (Goulas and Zervoyianni 2015). In line with these recent efforts, along with the literatures on bankruptcy diffusion and white-collar crime, the main research question in this article is whether it is possible to identify a relationship between bankruptcy frauds and the volume of bankruptcies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Asymmetric Effect of Bankruptcy Fraud in Sweden: A Long-Term Perspective

2018

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Objectives The knowledge of the effects of white-collar crimes is incomplete. In the article, we operationalize white-collar crimes as bankruptcy frauds. Economic models maintain that interlinkages between firms may give 'domino effects': bankruptcy events could lead to 'bankruptcy chains' in which a bankruptcy spreads to other firms. Analogously, criminologists assert that social and economic networks can be a major source of fraud diffusion, with the potential to drive other firms bankrupt. Recent empirical results show that crimes may have detrimental and even asymmetric (nonlinear) effects on economic activity. We analyze the diffusion and the aggregate development of bankruptcy frauds in Sweden over nearly two hundred years, specifically focusing on the relationship between bankruptcy frauds and the bankruptcy volume. We also consider linkages between bankruptcy frauds, bankruptcies, and the macroeconomic cycle. Methods We use long, aggregate time series, collected from several different historical and contemporary sources. Applying the recently developed cointegrating nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, we investigate whether the bankruptcy volume reacts asymmetrically to increases and decreases in bankruptcy frauds, both in the short and the long run. Results Bankruptcy frauds reveal a causal effect on bankruptcies, showing an asymmetric (nonlinear) diffusion effect from economic frauds to the bankruptcy volume. Increases in bankruptcy frauds have a positive and significant effect on the bankruptcy volume. However, decreases in bankruptcy frauds show no significant effect. No causal relationship between the macroeconomic cycle and bankruptcy frauds is found.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Asymmetric Effect of Bankruptcy Fraud in Sweden: A Long-Term Perspective

2018

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“…This technique has been used in other crime-related studies (e.g. Goulas and Zervoyianni, 2013;2015;Saridakis and Spengler, 2012) and its advantage relies on using appropriately lagged levels and lagged differences of the explanatory variables as instruments so that causation will only run from the right to the lefthand side of Eq. 1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crime and unemployment in Greece: Evidence before and during the crisis

Laliotis

2016

Econom. bus. letters

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This paper explores the relationship between unemployment and crime in Greece before and during the crisis using panel data at the regional level for the period 1999-2013. The results indicate the operation of a positive relationship between specific crime categories and male unemployment only during the crisis, a weaker effect of long term unemployment only on the total criminal activity and they reveal the existence of significant dynamics.

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“…Penelitian Goulas & Zervoyianni (2015) yang dilakukan pada 25 negara Uni-Eropa dan Jepang, menyimpulkan negara diperkirakan mampu meningkat pertumbuhan pendapatan per kapita pendudukannya sekitar 1% per tahun jika mampu menekan tingkat kriminalitas sebesar 10%. Di Indonesia kondisi ini akan dapat diamati jika asupan data statistik kriminalitasnya tidak bias.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified