Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions

Baerlocher, Diogo; Parente, Stephen L.; Rios-Neto, Eduardo Luiz Gonçalves

doi:10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100198

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Taking Brazil as a sample, Baerlocher et al (2019) also found the same results. They argue that age-structure shifts will have a significant effect on growth rates after controlling human capital, especially the level of education (Baerlocher et al, 2019). That finding strengthens previous research conducted by Wongboonsin and Phiromswad (2017) who revealed that education is a channel through which an increase in the share of middle-aged workers has a positive impact on output growth in developed countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…Other novelties that are different from previous papers (Baerlocher et al, 2019;Choudhry & Elhorst, 2010;Liu & Hu, 2013;Mason et al, 2016;Misra, 2017;Wongboonsin & Phiromswad, 2017) are the two main insights. Firstly, the paper addresses endogeneity problems with two simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…They claimed that changes in the age-structure of human capital investment over the demographic shifts have a crucial impact on the standard of living (Mason et al, 2016). Taking Brazil as a sample, Baerlocher et al (2019) also found the same results. They argue that age-structure shifts will have a significant effect on growth rates after controlling human capital, especially the level of education (Baerlocher et al, 2019).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 63%

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The Role of ICT and Human Capital Development in Pursuing a Demographic Dividend and Improving Economic Welfare in Indonesia

Nurarifin

Ridena

2020

JISDeP

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This article aims to provide evidence that Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and human development play an important role in pursuing a demographic dividend and accelerating economic welfare in Indonesia by exploiting provincial data from 2012 to 2017. The empirical evidence implemented in this research is Two-Stage Least Squares and dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. The results show that a 1%-point rise in ICT development growth potentially leads to an approximately 0.24%-point increase in economic welfare growth, whereas an in life expectancy may decrease GDP per capita. The analysis also finds that a 1%-point increase in the ratio of the participation rate will promote a nearly 0.16%-point rise in per capita output. Meanwhile, a 1%-point increase in the share of the working-age population will generate roughly 0.19%-point rise in per capita income. A recent paper suggests that policymakers have to promote more supportive ICT and human development policies to pursue a demographic dividend since even though they have a positive impact on per capita income, the magnitude remains relatively low.

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Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 60%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 63%

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The Role of ICT and Human Capital Development in Pursuing a Demographic Dividend and Improving Economic Welfare in Indonesia

Nurarifin

Ridena

2020

JISDeP

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“…While their analyses do not reveal effects of the level of population, urbanization, or the growth rate of the dependency ratio, they do find significant negative effects of the level of the dependency ratio and of population density. Secondly, Baerlocher et al (2019) estimate the impacts of the participation rate, the working age population, the growth rates of the (working age) population, and the level of and change in the mean years of schooling in micro-regions in Brazil. They find that demographic variables do matter for economic growth, though predominantly through their effect on human capital accumulation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries

Crombach¹,

Smits²

2020

Preprint

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Data for 91 low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) are used to investigate the effect of the demographic transition on economic growth at sub-national level. We introduce a detailed classification of demographic window (DW) phases, determine how these phases are distributed among and within LMICs, and analyze the relationship between the DW and economic growth for 1,921 urban and rural areas of sub-national regions. Many regions in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have entered the window, but most of sub-Saharan Africa is still in the traditional or pre-window phase. Multilevel analyses reveal higher growth rates in areas with lower and decreasing dependency ratios. Demographic effects are stronger in rural, more developed and more educated regions. Findings indicate that, in the coming years, the DW might strengthen economic growth in rural areas of LMICs, and particularly if accompanied by investments in education and rural development.

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“…A literatura aponta para a existência de uma forte relação entre desenvolvimento e fecundidade (BAERLOCHER; PARENTE; RIOS-NETO, 2019;TEJADA et al, 2017), de modo que as heterogeneidades acima mencionadas podem ser explicadas pelos diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento observados entre as regiões do Brasil. Como indicam os dados do Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano de 2013, 2 44,1% dos municípios do Norte e 62,0% daqueles do Nordeste podem ser considerados de níveis de desenvolvimento baixo ou muito baixo.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Impactos da estrutura etária sobre o desempenho econômico das regiões do Brasil entre 1991 e 2010

Stampe

Pozzobon

Niquito

2020

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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Este estudo objetiva analisar como a estrutura etária afetou o desempenho econômico das regiões brasileiras nas décadas de 1990 a 2010. Para a investigação proposta, são usadas, principalmente, as informações disponibilizadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) nas edições de 1991, 2000 e 2010 do Censo Demográfico. A estratégia empírica adotada consiste na estimação de um modelo de autocorrelação espacial pelo método de mínimos quadrados em dois estágios espaciais. Os resultados mostraram que tanto a razão de dependência infantil quanto a de idosos possuem impacto negativo sobre o crescimento econômico, sendo que os efeitos são mais acentuados nas regiões menos desenvolvidas. Ainda, observou-se que, quando significativo, o efeito da razão de dependência de idosos é mais acentuado em relação à infantil.

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Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions

Cited by 19 publications

References 28 publications

The Role of ICT and Human Capital Development in Pursuing a Demographic Dividend and Improving Economic Welfare in Indonesia

The Role of ICT and Human Capital Development in Pursuing a Demographic Dividend and Improving Economic Welfare in Indonesia

The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries

Impactos da estrutura etária sobre o desempenho econômico das regiões do Brasil entre 1991 e 2010

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