Economic disintegration of the European Union: Not unavoidable, but probable

Abstract

It is argued that European integration has not fulfilled its chief economic promises. Output growth has been increasingly weak and unstable. Productivity growth has been following a decreasing trend. Income inequalities, both within and between the EU member states, have been rising. This sorry state of affairs is likely to continue — and likely to precipitate further exits, or eventually, the dissolution of the Union. However, this outcome is not unavoidable. A better integration in the EU is possible, at least in theory. Also, the negative consequences implicit in the existence of the common currency could be neutralised. However, the basic paradigms of the economic policies to be followed in the EU would have to be radically changed. First, the unconditional fiscal consolidation provisions still in force would have to be repelled. Second, “beggar-thy-neighbour” (or mercantilist) wage policies would have to be “outlawed”.

What do we know about manufacturing reshoring?

“…former transition economies) have, on average, seen their export-GDP ratio double in size between 1990 and 2013 (Vrh, 2017). However, since then, it entered into a stagnation phase, oscillating around that value (Podkaminer, 2016). For instance, with export effects through Turning point in stopping global sourcing euro adoption, Cie slik et al (2012) conclude: "In the case of exports to the EMU member countries, this effect lasts only for two years and in the case of total exports for 3 years".…”

From the Periphery to the Center of Global Knowledge Production? A Bibliometric Analysis of the Evolution of a Social Science Community from a Small Country: Austria

“…One of these few exceptions was the analysis published by Pelinka, 1996 in the leading political science journal of the neigh boring country Switzerland. There, the author already found a strong, and what we interpret even alarming dependence of the career patterns of the professors at the political science departments in Austria from the neigh boring "big brother" Germany, a country with the same official language as Austria, and playing such a dominant role in the Eurozone countries (Laski, Podkaminer 2012;Podkaminer 2016). If anything, this dependence of the Austrian Universities from Germany increased ever since.…”

“…Louçã's econometrics of the current crisis in Europe and of the ways out from it were published with leading international publishers in the field of economics, and are part of a growing scientific movement to find an agenda of an 'alternative European project' by means of solid, 'mainstream' quantitative economic analysis, published in leading journals of the discipline. Not only Louçã and associates contributed to this debate, but also the late Austro-Polish political economist Kazimierz Łaski (December 15, 1921-October 20, 2015, who also combined 'critical research' with a standard global publication strategy (Laski, Podkaminer 2012;Louçã 1997Louçã , 1998Louçã , 2017Louçã, Ash 2018;Louçã, Mortagua 2012;Podkaminer 2016;Riese 2016).…”

Globalization, secular stagnation, and soft national balances: A pro-equilibrium manifesto

“…Intra-EU free trade combined with single currency and the German iron-fisted policy of suppressing wage costs and public sector deficits have pushed the area's southern flank into a persistent recession and deindustrialization combined with snowballing debt vs. the German banks and financial institutions. This arrangement is costly to Germany (or its labor force) too, and is unlikely to be maintained indefinitely (Podkaminer 2015(Podkaminer , 2016a. Under a different international economic order, somehow enforcing more balanced trade among nations -with major nations not allowed to compensate insufficient domestic demand with huge trade surpluses that destabilize their partners -global trade may assume the positive role assigned to it by the conventional trade theories.…”