Globalization, secular stagnation, and soft national balances: A pro-equilibrium manifesto

Abstract

It is argued that increased freedom to run economic activities combined with the growing impotence of national governments (i.e., globalization) have contributed to the secular growth slowdown at the global level. Fast globalisation-driven growth of international trade has unleashed the global race for economic surpluses. The process involves the suppression of wages and widening income inequalities – restricting aggregate demand globally. A “beggar-thy-neighbor” tactics of keeping large trade surpluses by countries successfully suppressing wages and domestic demand is likely to be unproductive. Overcoming the secular stagnation may not be possible without safeguarding equilibrium (or balance) in international transactions between major industrial countries – even if this may necessitate that in most (or all) of them the public sectors run large fiscal deficits permanently.

Is better economic integration in the EU possible?

“…The answer to this question, suggested by Podkaminer (2014;2016a;2018b), is that progressing external liberalisation is responsible for deep and persistent trade imbalances and for wages getting suppressed by unsound international competition (race to the bottom). Both developments have negative consequences for long-term output growth.…”