Economic Conditions and Constituency Voting in Great Britain

Abstract

The extent to which levels and trends in local unemployment and income influenced the Conservative vote in 633 separate British constituency elections in 1983 is estimated in several regression models. Long‐term influences on voting are controlled by the endogenous variables of social class and territoriality. It is argued that this research design is superior to previous ones that have treated general elections as national elections in exploring the economic theory of voting. Sensitivity analysis (the use of several models to illuminate the research problem posed) suggests that, unlike America congressional elections, current rates and trends in local unemployment and income exerted a substantial and systematic influence on constituency voting.

A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK General Election

“…There is also a vast literature on the relationship between economic conditions and voting behaviour (see for example, Kramer 1971;MacKuen et al 1992;Pacek and Radcliff 1995;Sanders et al 2001). Owens and Wade (1988) suggest that local constituency level economic performance does affect voting behaviour in the UK. A similar effect is established for Sweden by Elinder (2010), who finds that local economic conditions did affect support for the Swedish government between 1985and 2002.…”

“…2001). Owens and Wade (1988) suggest that local constituency level economic performance does affect voting behaviour in the UK. A similar effect is established for Sweden by Elinder (2010), who finds that local economic conditions did affect support for the Swedish government between 1985 and 2002.…”

“Its not like that round here”: Region, economic evaluations and voting at the 1992 British General Election

“…Governments which preside over periods of economic growth will be rewarded by the electorate, while parties which preside over recessions are punished. Some studies link government popularity and votes to objective indicators of economic well-being, most commonly unemployment and inflation (Goodhart & Bhansali 1970; Owens & Wade 1988;Hibbs 1982;Norpoth 1987;Heath & Paulson 1992). Other studies have suggested that voters are influenced by their perceptions of how the economy is faring.…”

“…More formal analyses of the links between local and regional economies and party support confirm this impression. At the 1983, 1987 and 1992 elections, there was a negative relationship between support for the government and the level of unemployment in a constituency; the higher the local unemployment rate, the smaller the Conservatives' share of the vote (Owens & Wade 1988;. Furthermore, analysis of voters' economic perceptions during the 1980s revealed clear regional patterns (Johnston, Pattie & Allsopp 1988;Johnston & Pattie 1989a,b;Marsh et al 1992).…”

Positional issues, valence issues and the economic geography of voting in British elections

“…Analyses of the relationship between constituency unemployment and voting patterns throughout the 1980s and 1990s consistently reported that the higher the rates of unemployment locally, the lower was the constituency share of the vote for the government. In their analysis of voting at the 1983 UK General Election, Owens and Wade (1988) found that the vote share won by the Conservative government in each 45 constituency was negatively related to the local unemployment rate at the time of the election, and to changes in the rate in the year before the election, but was positively related to both average local income levels and changes in average local incomes Analyses of constituency voting at the 1987 and 1992 elections revealed similar patterns (Johnston and Pattie, 1992b;. Furthermore, other local economic indicators are also related to constituency voting patterns.…”