Positional issues, valence issues and the economic geography of voting in British elections

Abstract

A body of research has built up in recent years linking the changing geography of party support in British elections to variations in the country's economic geography. 10 Consistent with the economic vote model, government support has been shown to be higher than average in affluent areas and lower than average in poorer areas. However, the great majority of such studies have concentrated on elections between 1979 and 1997, a prolonged period of one-party rule. This article argues that this means existing research cannot differentiate between the very different predictions of positional 15 and valence approaches to economic voting since both suggest identical outcomes during Conservative administrations. By contrasting a period of Conservative rule with a period of Labour rule, however, the article provides a test of the competing claims of the positional and valence arguments for an understanding of Britain's electoral geography.

The economic geography of European Union’s discontent: Lessons from Greece

“…This hypothesis has received much attention lately – due to the Great Recession – calling for a re-examination of the field in these extraordinary times (Lewis-Beck and Lobo, 2017). This theory also extends to the subnational level, linking the changing geography of voting patterns to variations in a country’s economic geography (Pattie and Johnston, 2008). However, the scant empirical research at the regional level is in its infancy, focusing almost exclusively on the United States and the United Kingdom (Leib and Quinton, 2011: 12).…”

“…Data for this variable are provided, upon request, by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). This indicator provides a good measure of local economic conditions (Pattie and Johnston, 2008). It also lies at the heart of the theory of economic voting and its rise has been linked to the dramatic decline in European trust (Foster and Frieden, 2017).…”

Geography: The Key to Recent British Elections

“…1995a). In addition, whereas some made their economic voting decisions based on their appreciation of trends in either or both of their personal financial situations and the national economy, others also took into account regional economic conditions (Johnston and Pattie 1998; Pattie and Johnston 2008), even to the extent of putting local concerns ahead of their own (Johnston et al. 2000).…”

“…The places with the largest numbers in this situation tended to be those where the incumbent Conservative government lost most support at the 1992 general election (Pattie et al 1995a). In addition, whereas some made their economic voting decisions based on their appreciation of trends in either or both of their personal financial situations and the national economy, others also took into account regional economic conditions (Johnston and Pattie 1998;Pattie and Johnston 2008), even to the extent of putting local concerns ahead of their own .…”