Economic aspects of decision making in production processes with uncertain component quality

Abstract

Production and service processes always introduce discrepancies between real and expected parameters. Accurate modelling of uncertainties in manufacturing processes has great impact on logistics related factors. In this representation, instead of a deterministic analysis of manufacturing processes with uncertain quality of components, decision making is described with stochastic decision trees. The objective of this work is to show how to include the uncertain quality of components into the optimization of manufacturing processes. This paper proposes a new decision tree model with stochastic parameters that can determine the optimal operations depending on the quality of components to be assembled. After a careful literature review, this paper introduces a model to formulate the problem of decision making in manufacturing and assembly processes depending on the quality of produced batches of components. The model seeks the optimal pre-assembly operation, like testing or repairing while taking into account specific costs, prior and posterior probabilities and likelihoods. Next, we demonstrate an enhanced stochastic decision tree with cumulative hypergeometric probability distributions to find the minimum of expected cost based objective function. Numerical results demonstrate how the proposed model supports the decision making process and increase the efficiency, flexibility and reliability of the manufacturing process.

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