Ecological Relationship between Mesothelioma Incidence/Mortality and Asbestos Consumption in Ten Western Countries and Japan

Takahashi, Ken; Huuskonen, Matti S.; Tossavainen, Antti; Higashi, Toshiaki; Okubo, Toshiteru; Rantanen, Jorma

doi:10.1539/joh.41.8

Cited by 44 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…(14) The level of indoor radon in Japan, a known risk factor for lung cancer in Western countries (15) is much lower than in the USA. (16) Although asbestos consumption per capita was higher in Japan than in the USA during the mid-1970s, (17) it remains unknown whether low environmental exposure to asbestos (in contrast to heavy occupational exposure) causes lung cancer. (18) In contrast to non-smokers, death rates among current smokers in our sample were lower than those observed in the CPS-II sample, regardless of age and sex.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lung cancer death rates by smoking status: Comparison of the Three‐Prefecture Cohort study in Japan to the Cancer Prevention Study II in the USA

et al. 2005

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Cigarette smoking is an established risk factor for lung cancer. However, the magnitude of the relative risk (RR) on lung cancer mortality in relation to cigarette smoking is reported to be lower in Japan than in Western countries. We investigated whether this discrepancy could be explained by differences in the exposure to cigarettes smoked, by differences in sensitivity to smoking, or by differences in lung cancer mortality among non-smokers. We examined the 10-year follow-up data on 88 153 participants in a Japanese population-based prospective study conducted in three prefectures. Data used as a Western counterpart was retrieved from a published report of the US Cancer Prevention Study (CPS)-II. Although there was a significant increased risk of lung cancer death among current smokers compared with non-smokers, the observed RR in the Three-Prefecture Study were much lower than RR reported in the CPS-II. Lung cancer mortality of our Japanese sample was lower among current smokers and higher among non-smokers regardless of age and sex. Current smokers in our sample had initiated smoking at an older age and smoked fewer cigarettes per day for shorter durations than those in the CPS-II sample. The

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lung cancer death rates by smoking status: Comparison of the Three‐Prefecture Cohort study in Japan to the Cancer Prevention Study II in the USA

et al. 2005

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“…A strong correlation between asbestosrelated diseases and past national consumption of asbestos has been reported in several publications (28,45,58,61). Most recently, Lin published an ecologic analysis of mesothelioma and asbestosis mortality data for 2000-2004 from the WHO and the mean per capita consumption of asbestos in 1960-1969 (28).…”

Section: The Future Of the Asbestos Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 96%

The Worldwide Pandemic of Asbestos-Related Diseases

Stayner

Welch

Lemen³

2013

Annu. Rev. Public Health

221

174

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Background: Asbestos-related diseases are still a major public health problem. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that 107,000 people worldwide die each year from mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis. We review what is known about asbestos use, production, and exposure and asbestos-related diseases in the world today, and we offer predictions for the future. Although worldwide consumption of asbestos has decreased, consumption is increasing in many developing countries. The limited data available suggest that exposures may also be high in developing countries. Mesothelioma is still increasing in most European countries and in Japan but has peaked in the United States and Sweden. Although the epidemic of asbestos-related disease has plateaued or is expected to plateau in most of the developed world, little is known about the epidemic in developing countries. It is obvious that increased asbestos use by these countries will result in an increase in asbestos-related diseases in the future.

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“…35 Many studies on wide data sets and reviews report considerable variability in the mean latency reflecting the type of exposure. 36,37 Takahashi et al 38 and Tossavainen 39 recently observed a linear relationship between the mesothelioma incidence/mortality rate and per-capita asbestos consumption in 10 Western countries (Italy included) with different lag periods (from 10 to 25 years). We found the best fit with a nonlinear curve.…”

Section: Asbestos Consumption Model: Assumptions and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: A model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age‐period‐cohort models

Marinaccio

Montanaro

Mastrantonio

et al. 2005

Intl Journal of Cancer

102

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Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970 -1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using ageperiod-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model.

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Ecological Relationship between Mesothelioma Incidence/Mortality and Asbestos Consumption in Ten Western Countries and Japan

Cited by 44 publications

References 4 publications

Lung cancer death rates by smoking status: Comparison of the Three‐Prefecture Cohort study in Japan to the Cancer Prevention Study II in the USA

Lung cancer death rates by smoking status: Comparison of the Three‐Prefecture Cohort study in Japan to the Cancer Prevention Study II in the USA

The Worldwide Pandemic of Asbestos-Related Diseases

Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: A model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age‐period‐cohort models

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