Ecological Niche Models Reveal Climate Change Effect on Biogeographical Regions: The Iberian Peninsula as a Case Study

Abstract

How species are distributed on Earth depends largely on climate factors. Whenever these environmental conditions change, species tend to shift their distributions to reach more favourable conditions. Distinct sets of species similarly distributed (i.e., chorotypes) occur in biogeographical regions with homogeneous environmental conditions. Here, we analysed whether biogeographical regions are unstable over time (from the past to the future). We modelled the realised niche of amphibians and reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula in the present, and several past and future climate scenarios. Then, we used Jaccard’s index and the unweighted pair group method (UPGMA) to define the biogeographical regions. Our results suggest that the biogeographical regions of Iberian amphibians and reptiles changed greatly over time, due to the climatic changes between periods. Biogeographical regions composed of species with Atlantic affinities changed particularly, overall gaining suitable areas in past colder periods and losing suitable areas in warmer periods. The areas of refugia for amphibians over time corresponded to the most humid regions (north-west of the peninsula), while the most important areas for reptiles occur in the south and on the Atlantic coast. The identification of biogeographical patterns considering past climate changes is essential to better apply conservation measures.

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

“…We further observed that the distributional range of pancake tortoises would expand in the future (Fig 2; Table 1). The expansion of the future distributional ranges of reptiles has also been recorded by Houniet et al [55] for Bradypodion occidentale , González-Fernández et al [56] for Thamnophis melanogaster , Fathinia et al [57] for Pseudocerastes urarachnoides and Sousa-Guedes et al [58] for 13 different reptile species.…”

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

“…We further predicted that the distributional range of pancake tortoises would expand in the future (Fig 2 and Table 1). The expansion of the future distributional ranges of reptiles has also been recorded by Houniet et al [69] for Bradypodion occidentale, González-Fernández et al [70] for Thamnophis melanogaster, Fathinia et al [71] for Pseudocerastes urarachnoides and Sousa-Guedes et al [72] for 13 different reptile species.…”

A survival story: evolutionary history of the Iberian Algyroides (Squamata: Lacertidae), an endemic lizard relict

“…Generally, up to 13 species may lose their entire potential distribution by 2080 (Carvalho et al 2010). The Atlantic region will decrease in extent while the Mediterranean region will expand northwards (Sousa-Guedes et al 2020). These results are actually not surprising considering the hydric requirements of the studied species, as mentioned above (Carretero et al 2010;García-Muñoz and Carretero 2013;Rubio and Carrascal 1994); in fact, the highest among the lacertids studied to date (Garcia-Porta et al 2019).…”