Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

Abstract

While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km2 to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60–401,179.70 km2. The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.

Design of Protected Area by Tracking and Excluding the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change: A Case Study Using Neurergus derjugini

“…Protected areas (PAs), as one of the leading conservation tools for biodiversity, are mainly associated with potential failure to protect species against climate and landscape change [19,[86][87][88][89][90][91][92][93][94][95][96]. While some studies have shown that PAs remained suitable climates, facilitated the range expansion and colonization of species, and decreased historical loss [89,[97][98][99][100].…”

Population and Conservation Status of Buxbaumia viridis (DC.) Moug. & Nestl. in Romania

“…In total, 300 models were generated and evaluated based on AUC and TSS. The ensemble was generated from models with AUC values greater than the mean plus half a standard deviation or models with TSS values greater than the mean plus half a standard deviation [ 67 ]. A threshold model was also created based on the TSS cut-off value.…”

Activity and predation of the threatened pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri

“…We sampled the tortoises opportunistically and record the evidence of predation at six sites and out-of-crevice activities at three. The names and locations of the sites have been withheld to protect the critically endangered pancake tortoise from illegal harvest (Eustace et al, 2021).…”