Ecological niche modeling and geographic distribution of the genus Polianthes L. (Agavaceae) in Mexico: using niche modeling to improve assessments of risk status

Solano, Eloy; Feria, Teresa Patricia

doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-6444-9_20

Cited by 20 publications

(24 citation statements)

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“…Geographical distribution modelling has become an important tool in filling this gap and in furthering ecology, conservation and evolution studies. Specific applications include the study of the expansion of invasive species (Carroll et al, 2001;Peterson et al, 2007;Zhu et al, 2007;Reino et al, 2009), the effects of climatic changes on biodiversity (Heikkinen et al, 2006) and the establishment of conservation plans for threatened species (Solano and Feria, 2007;Marage et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining multiple models to predict the geographical distribution of the Baru tree (Dipteryx alata Vogel) in the Brazilian Cerrado

et al. 2010

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The Brazilian Cerrado is a biome of great biodiversity, but detailed information about the diversity and distribution of species in this region is still insufficient for both testing ecological hypotheses and for conservation purposes. Among native plants in the Cerrado, Dipteryx alata Vogel (commonly known as the "Baru" tree), has a high potential for exploitation. The aims of this paper were to predict the potential spatial distribution of D. alata in the Brazilian Cerrado utilising five different niche modelling techniques. These techniques usually provide distinct results, so it may be difficult to choose amongst them. To adjust for this uncertainty, we employ an ensemble forecasting approach to predict the spatial distribution of the Baru tree. We accumulated a total of 448 occurrence points and modelled the subsequent predicted occurrences using seven climatic variables. Five different presence-only ecological niche modelling techniques (GARP, Maxent, BIOCLIM, Mahalanobis Distance and Euclidean Distance) were used and the performance of these models was compared using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). All models presented AUC values higher than 0.68, and GARP presented the highest AUC value, whereas Euclidean Distance presented the lowest. The ensemble forecasting approach suggested a high suitability for the occurrence of the Baru tree in the Central-Western region of the Brazilian Cerrado. Our study demonstrated that modelling species distribution using ensemble forecasting can be an important computational tool for better establishing sampling strategies and for improving our biodiversity knowledge to better identify priority areas for conservation. For the Baru tree, we recommend priority actions for conservation in the central region of the Cerrado Biome.Keywords: conservation, niche modelling, ensemble forecast, Brazilian Cerrado. Combinando múltiplos modelos para predizer a distribuição geográfica do Barueiro (Dipteryx alata Vogel) no Cerrado brasileiroResumo O Cerrado brasileiro é considerado um bioma de grande biodiversidade, no entanto, informações detalhadas sobre a diversidade e distribuição das espécies ainda é insuficiente para testar hipóteses ecológicas e para propostas de conservação biológica. Dentre as plantas do cerrado com amplo potencial de exploração, destaca-se Dipteryx alata Vogel, (vulgarmente conhecida como Barueiro). O objetivo deste trabalho foi predizer a distribuição geográfica potencial de D. alata no Cerrado brasileiro, utilizando cinco diferentes técnicas de modelagem de nicho. Essas técnicas usualmente apresentam distintos resultados, dificultando a escolha de um modelo. Para corrigir essa incerteza, usamos a estratégia de combinar os modelos gerados (ensamble forecasting) para predizer a distribuição espacial potencial do Baru. Foi acumulado um total de 448 pontos de ocorrência para as espécies e modeladas, usando sete variáveis climáticas. Foram utilizadas cinco diferentes técnicas de modelagem de nicho usando-se dados ...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining multiple models to predict the geographical distribution of the Baru tree (Dipteryx alata Vogel) in the Brazilian Cerrado

et al. 2010

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“…Varios de los representantes del género son importantes a nivel científico, cultural y económico. En tal contexto, desde tiempos prehispánicos, Polianthes tuberosa ha sido utilizada con fines medicinales, ornamentales y ceremoniales (Solano y Feria, 2007). La transformación del hábitat es uno de los principales factores que afectan a las poblaciones silvestres (García-Mendoza, 1995, 2004.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…La transformación del hábitat es uno de los principales factores que afectan a las poblaciones silvestres (García-Mendoza, 1995, 2004. A la fecha existen pocos estudios que evalúen las categorías de su vulnerabilidad (Solano y Feria, 2007). Por ejemplo, a nivel internacional, ninguna se encuentra en la lista de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN por sus siglas en Inglés) (Anónimo, 2001).…”

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Reevaluación del riesgo de extinción de cinco especies del género Polianthes l. (Agavaceae)

Feria-Arroyo¹,

Solano

García-Mendoza

2010

Acta Bot. Mex.

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RESUMENCon base en el método de evaluación del riesgo de extinción de las especies silvestres en México (MER), se redefinió el de Polianthes densiflora, P. howardii, P. longiflora, P. palustris y P. platyphylla. Estas cinco plantas se encuentran listadas en la categoría de protección especial en la Norma Oficial Mexicana y fueron catalogadas como raras por la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). El criterio A del MER (amplitud de la distribución geográfica) se estimó mediante tres métodos: área ocupada, extensión del área ocupada y mapas obtenidos a partir de modelos de distribución. Los criterios B (condición del hábitat natural) y D (impacto humano) fueron evaluados con base en el mapa de Influencia Humana de Sanderson et al., el cual asigna valores entre 0 y 100, en donde 0-10 indica áreas conservadas y 100 la total destrucción del hábitat. El criterio C (vulnerabilidad intrínseca), se asignó en función de la naturaleza geófila de las especies. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que Polianthes densiflora y P. howardii están en peligro de extinción, P. longiflora y P. platyphylla se encuentran amenazadas y P. palustris está probablemente extinta. Ninguna de las cinco plantas se ha registrado en alguna Área Natural Protegida. Se proponen estrategias de conservación in situ y ex situ para las especies estudiadas, así como el desarrollo de programas de uso sustentable para P. longiflora y P. platyphylla, que podrían ser cultivadas y domesticadas mediante la propagación vegetativa.Palabras clave: Agavaceae, conservación, extinción, Polianthes. Acta Botanica Mexicana 92: 11-28 (2010) 12 ABSTRACTWe reassessed the extinction risk of the species Polianthes densiflora, P. howardii, P. longiflora, P. palustris and P. platyphylla by applying the MER (method of evaluation of extinction risk of wild species for Mexico). These species are listed as rare by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and are considered to be in the category of special protection according to Mexican regulation. MER criterion A (geographic distribution) was assessed with three methods: area of occupancy, extent of ocurrence, and species distribution models. Criteria B (habitat conditions) and D (impact of human activity) were examined by superimposing the human footprint map of Sanderson et al., where values range from 0 to 100. In this map, 0-10 denote pristine areas and 100 indicates that the habitat has been completely transformed. Criterion C (intrinsic biological vulnerability) was assigned based on the geophytic nature of the species. According to our findings, Polianthes densiflora and P. longiflora are in danger of extinction, while P. howardii and P. platyphylla are endangered and P. palustris is likely extinct. None of the five species concerned occur in any Natural Protected Area. We propose in situ and ex situ strategies to maintain these species as well as the development of programs of sustainable use for Polianthes longiflora and P. platyphylla. These species could be cultivated and...

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“…For example, there are studies in which the potential distribution of cactus species has been modeled (Téllez-Valdés and Dávila-Aranda, 2003), as well as species of the genus Jefea (Asteraceae) (Villaseñor and Téllez-Valdés, 2004), Polianthes (Asparagaceae) (Solano and Feria, 2007) and for the families Asteracea, Fabaceae and Poaceae (Villaseñor et al, 2007) as well as for 190 species of Mexican tropical trees (Pennington and Sarukhán, 2005), among others.…”

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Modeling the distribution of Mexican plants: knowledge and challenges in the face of biodiversity loss

Rodríguez

López-Toledo

2016

Bot. Sci.

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Ecological niche modeling and geographic distribution of the genus Polianthes L. (Agavaceae) in Mexico: using niche modeling to improve assessments of risk status

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

Combining multiple models to predict the geographical distribution of the Baru tree (Dipteryx alata Vogel) in the Brazilian Cerrado

Combining multiple models to predict the geographical distribution of the Baru tree (Dipteryx alata Vogel) in the Brazilian Cerrado

Reevaluación del riesgo de extinción de cinco especies del género Polianthes l. (Agavaceae)

Modeling the distribution of Mexican plants: knowledge and challenges in the face of biodiversity loss

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