Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of large carnivore depredation on sheep in Europe

Abstract

88 89 90 Tõnu Talvi 91 Environmental Board of the Estonian Ministry of Environment, Viidumäe, 93343 Saaremaa, 92 Estonia 93 94 Manuela von Arx 95 KORA -Carnivore Ecology and Wildlife Management, Thunstrasse 31, 3074 Muri b. Bern, 96 Switzerland 97 98 Figure legends: 160. 105 N. of tables: 1 106 N. of figures: 4 107 N. of references: 30 108 109 SUMMARY 110 • Sharing space with large carnivores on a human-dominated continent like Europe results 111 in multiple conflictful interactions with human interests, of which depredation on 112 livestock is the most widespread. Wildlife management agencies maintain compensation 113 programs for the damage caused by large carnivores, but the long-term effectiveness of 114 such programs is often contested. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms driving large 115 carnivore impact on human activities is necessary to identify key management actions to 116 reduce it. 117 • We conducted an analysis of the impact by all four European large carnivores on sheep 118 husbandry in 10 European countries, during the period 2010-2015. We ran a hierarchical 119 Simultaneous Autoregressive model, to assess the influence of ecological and 120 anthropogenic factors on the spatial and temporal patterns in the reported depredation 121 levels across the continent. 122 • On average, about 35,000 sheep were compensated in the ten countries as killed by large 123 carnivores annually, representing about 0.5% of the total sheep stock. Of them, 45% were 124 recognized as killed by wolves, 24% by wolverines, 19% by lynx and 12% by bears. At 125 the continental level, we found a positive relationship between wolf distribution and the 126 number of compensated sheep, but not for the other three species. Impact levels were 127 lower in the areas where large carnivore presence has been continuous compared to areas 128 where they disappeared and recently returned. The model explained 62% of the variation 129 in the number of compensated sheep per year in each administrative unit. Only 13% of 130 the variation was related to the ecological components of the process. 131 • Synthesis and Applications: Large carnivore distribution and local abundance alone are 132 poor predictors of large carnivore impact on livestock at the continental level. A few 133 individuals can produce high damage, when the contribution of environmental, social and 134 economic systems predisposes for it, whereas large populations can produce a limited 135 impact when the same components of the system reduce the probability that depredations 136 occur. Time seems to play in favour of a progressive reduction in the costs associated 137 with coexistence, provided that the responsible agencies focus their attention both on 138 compensation and co-adaptation.

Managing wolf impacts on sheep husbandry: a collaborative implementation and assessment of damage prevention measures in an agricultural landscape

“…European wolves (Canis lupus) are undergoing a noticeable expansion process throughout the continent (Chapron et al, 2014;Boitani et al, 2022) and, particularly in the absence of adequate mitigation strategies (Gervasi et al, 2021b), their presence is often associated with livestock depredations (Naughton-Treves et al, 2003;Linnell and Cretois, 2018;Gervasi et al, 2021a). Damage mitigation ideally includes compensation and preventive measures such as livestock guarding dogs (LGDs) and night time enclosures, whose effectiveness and cost-efficacy should be regularly monitored (Miller et al, 2016).…”