Echoing certainty in uncertain times: Network partisan agreement and the quality of citizen forecasts in the 2015 Canadian election

Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems

“…Expectations about election outcomes can profoundly affect citizens' behaviours (Murr, 2013), notably their willingness to participate in the political process, the way they vote, and their satisfaction with democracy (unexpected losses might, for example, create resentment towards political processes). As mentioned by Leiter, Reilly and Stegmaier (2020), "when faced with a reality that does not comport to their established beliefs, citizens may react quite negatively-an increasingly concerning phenomenon in modern democracies." Hence, it is important to identify the traits, attitudes, and habits that set apart the citizens who are most likely to form accurate expectations about political developments from those who are less inclined to correctly anticipate political outcomes.…”

“…Indeed, we can expect that voters who closely follow political developments and election campaigns possess vast amounts of relevant information from which they can draw to make thoughtful forecasts. 1 However, existing studies offer only mixed evidence regarding the effect of these variables on forecasting skills (Dolan and Holbrook 2001;Guinjoan et al 2014;Leiter et al 2018;Leiter, Reilly and Stegmaier 2020;Meffert et al 2011;see Anderson, McGregor and Pruysers 2020 for a rare study of forecasting ability at the municipal level). In most cases, political interest and media exposure do not seem to matter.…”

“…Socio-demographic characteristics are also considered as a potential source of influence on forecasting abilities. Age and gender are usually added as controls in models of forecasting skills but there do not seem to be any clear and consistent patterns of differences between men and women or older and younger voters (Daoust, Durand and Blais, 2020;Dolan and Holbrook, 2001;Leiter et al, 2018;Leiter, Reilly and Stegmaier, 2020;Meffert et al, 2011). Contrarily to age and gender, education usually stands out as an important factor in explaining the forecasting ability of individuals: highly educated citizens are more likely to anticipate electoral outcomes than less educated citizens.…”

“…Guessing the outcome of an election should be easier if the degree of party competition is low. Tight races and marginal seats should be more challenging for citizens, while lopsided elections and safe seats should generally offer a much clearer picture to voters (Dolan and Holbrook, 2001;Johnston, Hartman and Pattie, 2019;Leiter, Reilly and Stegmaier, 2020;Murr, 2011). The number of parties or candidates taking part in an election can also add to the difficulty of the forecasting task (see Murr 2011, 779).…”

“…A number of studies have considered the effect of political attitudes, information, knowledge (or sophistication), socio-demographic characteristics, social interactions, and contextual factors on individuals' forecasting skills (e.g., Dolan and Holbrook 2001;Lewis-Beck and Skalaban 1989;Lewis-Beck and Tien 1999;Leiter et al 2018;Leiter, Reilly and Stegmaier 2020;Meffert et al 2011). The role of affect (i.e., partisan preferences) and cognition (i.e., knowledge and information) is central to most studies of voters' expectations and forecasting abilities.…”