Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems

Mongrain, Philippe

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102317

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…People with high education are also less likely to believe in conspiracy theories ( van Prooijen 2017 ). Furthermore, these control variables are especially important as unexpectedness itself might be influenced by sociodemographic characteristics (although the evidence is mixed) as well as political sophistication ( Mongrain 2021 ; Morisi and Leeper 2022 ). All models also include region fixed effects.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suspicious Minds: Unexpected Election Outcomes, Perceived Electoral Integrity and Satisfaction With Democracy in American Presidential Elections

Mongrain

2023

Political Research Quarterly

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A great amount of research has noted the existence of a gap between election winners and losers in relation to perceptions of electoral fairness and satisfaction with democracy. One aspect of the winner–loser gap that has been overlooked is the impact of citizens’ expectations about election outcomes on these attitudes. More precisely, how do citizens react to unexpected defeats and victories? Are individuals on the losing side less critical of the electoral process or dissatisfied with democracy when they recognize beforehand that their favourite party or candidate was likely to be defeated? Does experiencing a surprise victory lead to a boost in perceived electoral integrity or democratic satisfaction? To answer these questions, I use data from the 1996, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020 ANES. While there is little evidence that expectations exert a major influence on post-election attitudes, outcome unexpectedness seems to have decreased confidence in the vote counting process among losers, independents and even winners in the 2020 election. The results show the considerable influence that fraud claims and conspiracy theories can have on public opinion when elected officials and candidates push a consistent story line of electoral malfeasance and corruption in an effort to denigrate political opponents.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suspicious Minds: Unexpected Election Outcomes, Perceived Electoral Integrity and Satisfaction With Democracy in American Presidential Elections

Mongrain

2023

Political Research Quarterly

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“…Just like political interest, news attentiveness and care should be related to higher levels of information or information‐seeking. Furthermore, previous research has shown that politically knowledgeable individuals were more likely to make accurate and realistic judgments about parties’ and candidates’ electoral prospects (Dolan & Holbrook, 2001; Mongrain, 2021a). For district‐level races, the margin of victory as well as a binary variable for reelection (0 if the incumbent party candidate fails to get reelected and 1 otherwise) 6 were included to control for the level of competitiveness and previous outcomes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the results of these studies are mixed and the effect of most individual‐level factors (such as education, political knowledge, interest for politics or news attentiveness) on forecasting accuracy is often quite small. Party identification stands as the only exception as citizens who feel closer to the winning party or candidate are consistently found to be much more inclined to make a correct prediction than those who identify with one of the losing parties or candidates (see Mongrain, 2021a). Obviously, this does not mean that citizens who share the party identification of the winner are better forecasters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

With a little help from my friends? The impact of social networks on citizens' forecasting ability

Mongrain

2022

European J Political Res

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Partisan preferences usually stand out as the major driving force behind voters' expectations about election outcomes. Apart from partisan preferences, however, purely individual‐level factors appear to be only weakly associated with forecasting ability. Some studies argue that we need to move from the strictly personal sphere to the interpersonal one to better understand the underpinnings of individuals' forecasting ability. This paper leverages data from 77 elections at the district, municipal, regional, and/or national levels in 10 different countries to assess the impact of social networks and social interactions on the accuracy of citizens' electoral expectations. The results cast doubt on the capacity of social interactions to influence citizens' forecasting skills.

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“…These include individual and contextual characteristics. Individual characteristics can be further divided into psychological characteristics and informational characteristics (Mongrain, 2021a). Political affiliation represents the principal psychological characteristic influencing citizen forecasting competence (Mongrain, 2021a;Dolan & Holbrook, 2001).…”

Section: Overview Of Citizen Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Individual characteristics can be further divided into psychological characteristics and informational characteristics (Mongrain, 2021a). Political affiliation represents the principal psychological characteristic influencing citizen forecasting competence (Mongrain, 2021a;Dolan & Holbrook, 2001). Several studies reveal that citizens engage in «wishful thinking» and overestimate the probability of their preferred party winning an election (Dolan & Holbrook, 2001).…”

Section: Overview Of Citizen Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Latin American Voters see the Future?

Thompson-Collart,

Dufresne,

Brie

2024

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

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The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.

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Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems

Cited by 6 publications

References 47 publications

Suspicious Minds: Unexpected Election Outcomes, Perceived Electoral Integrity and Satisfaction With Democracy in American Presidential Elections

Suspicious Minds: Unexpected Election Outcomes, Perceived Electoral Integrity and Satisfaction With Democracy in American Presidential Elections

With a little help from my friends? The impact of social networks on citizens' forecasting ability

Can Latin American Voters see the Future?

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