Abstract:What makes a model organism? Identifying the qualities of a model
organism has been given a great deal of attention in the biomolecular
sciences, but less so in the fields of evolution, ecology, and behavior
(EEB). In EEB, biotic and abiotic variation are features to understand,
not bugs to get rid of, and EEB scientists often select organisms to
study which best suit the scientific question at hand. Successful EEB
model organisms can be studied at multiple biological scales and have a
wealth of accumulated kn… Show more
“…Dispersal‐limited species are likely to be more strongly impacted by these shifts because they cannot quickly respond to rapid environmental change. Given the wide geographical range of P. cinereus and the numerous investigations into its life history and behavior (reviewed in Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ), as well as the importance of salamanders generally as environmental indicators (Buckley & Jetz, 2007 ; Feder & Burggren, 1992 ; Fleming et al, 2020 ; Welsh & Droege, 2001 ), this species is an excellent model system for utilizing species distribution models/ecological niche models to better understand the macroclimatic factors driving past, present, and future potential range shifts in dispersal‐limited amphibians.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Species distribution models/ecological niche models provide a foundation for where we should expect to lose P. cinereus populations using macroclimatic variables. To better understand the effects of microclimatic changes on P. cinereus and other salamanders accompanying climate change, as well as determine whether the decreases in favorability predicted by our models are fulfilled, more long‐term field studies are necessary (Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ), especially at the extremes of the distribution range. Combining species distribution models using macroclimatic variables with field data from local, finer‐scale variables (Enriquez‐Urzelai, Kearney, et al, 2019 ) will help to elucidate future trends for P. cinereus , for North American salamanders, and for dispersal‐limited taxa more generally.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This previous work has established the microclimatic preferences of P. cinereus , such as how air and soil temperature and precipitation impact detection rates of P. cinereus (Hernández‐Pacheco et al, 2019 ), and how temperature impacts the species' growth rates and the onset of sexual maturity (Muñoz, Miller Hesed, et al, 2016 ). As a result of this wealth of research, P. cinereus has become a model species for understanding the impacts of microclimate on amphibian ecology, behavior, and dispersal (reviewed in Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ). However, the effects of macroclimate on P. cinereus have been less fully explored, and the potential impacts of future climate on the species as a whole have yet to be studied via species distribution modeling, which may provide important insights into potential distributional changes over the next century (e.g., Zhang et al, 2020 in Chinese giant salamanders).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These data will generate new insights into large‐scale climatic impacts on P. cinereus and build on our current understanding of P. cinereus ecology. As P. cinereus is becoming a model system in amphibian ecology (Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ), these data will be potentially helpful in better understanding range shift ecology in amphibians generally, especially lungless amphibians, in the face of rapidly accelerating climate change.…”
Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red‐Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961–1980 and 2001–2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961–1980 and 2001–2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal‐limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal‐limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.
“…Dispersal‐limited species are likely to be more strongly impacted by these shifts because they cannot quickly respond to rapid environmental change. Given the wide geographical range of P. cinereus and the numerous investigations into its life history and behavior (reviewed in Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ), as well as the importance of salamanders generally as environmental indicators (Buckley & Jetz, 2007 ; Feder & Burggren, 1992 ; Fleming et al, 2020 ; Welsh & Droege, 2001 ), this species is an excellent model system for utilizing species distribution models/ecological niche models to better understand the macroclimatic factors driving past, present, and future potential range shifts in dispersal‐limited amphibians.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Species distribution models/ecological niche models provide a foundation for where we should expect to lose P. cinereus populations using macroclimatic variables. To better understand the effects of microclimatic changes on P. cinereus and other salamanders accompanying climate change, as well as determine whether the decreases in favorability predicted by our models are fulfilled, more long‐term field studies are necessary (Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ), especially at the extremes of the distribution range. Combining species distribution models using macroclimatic variables with field data from local, finer‐scale variables (Enriquez‐Urzelai, Kearney, et al, 2019 ) will help to elucidate future trends for P. cinereus , for North American salamanders, and for dispersal‐limited taxa more generally.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This previous work has established the microclimatic preferences of P. cinereus , such as how air and soil temperature and precipitation impact detection rates of P. cinereus (Hernández‐Pacheco et al, 2019 ), and how temperature impacts the species' growth rates and the onset of sexual maturity (Muñoz, Miller Hesed, et al, 2016 ). As a result of this wealth of research, P. cinereus has become a model species for understanding the impacts of microclimate on amphibian ecology, behavior, and dispersal (reviewed in Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ). However, the effects of macroclimate on P. cinereus have been less fully explored, and the potential impacts of future climate on the species as a whole have yet to be studied via species distribution modeling, which may provide important insights into potential distributional changes over the next century (e.g., Zhang et al, 2020 in Chinese giant salamanders).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These data will generate new insights into large‐scale climatic impacts on P. cinereus and build on our current understanding of P. cinereus ecology. As P. cinereus is becoming a model system in amphibian ecology (Fisher‐Reid et al, 2021 ), these data will be potentially helpful in better understanding range shift ecology in amphibians generally, especially lungless amphibians, in the face of rapidly accelerating climate change.…”
Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red‐Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961–1980 and 2001–2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961–1980 and 2001–2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal‐limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal‐limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.
Characterizing the population density of species is a central interest in ecology. Eastern North America is the global hotspot for biodiversity of plethodontid salamanders, an inconspicuous component of terrestrial vertebrate communities, and among the most widespread is the eastern red-backed salamander,
Plethodon cinereus
. Previous work suggests population densities are high with significant geographic variation, but comparisons among locations are challenged by lack of standardization of methods and failure to accommodate imperfect detection. We present results from a large-scale research network that accounts for detection uncertainty using systematic survey protocols and robust statistical models. We analysed mark–recapture data from 18 study areas across much of the species range. Estimated salamander densities ranged from 1950 to 34 300 salamanders ha
−1
, with a median of 9965 salamanders ha
−1
. We compared these results to previous estimates for
P. cinereus
and other abundant terrestrial vertebrates. We demonstrate that overall the biomass of
P. cinereus
, a secondary consumer, is of similar or greater magnitude to widespread primary consumers such as white-tailed deer (
Odocoileus virginianus
) and
Peromyscus
mice, and two to three orders of magnitude greater than common secondary consumer species. Our results add empirical evidence that
P. cinereus
, and amphibians in general, are an outsized component of terrestrial vertebrate communities in temperate ecosystems.
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