Species with partial migration, where a portion of a population migrates and the other remains residential, provide the opportunity to evaluate conditions for migration and test mechanisms influencing migratory decisions. We conducted a five-year study of two populations of red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens), composed of individuals that either remain as residents in the breeding pond over the winter or migrate to the terrestrial habitat. We used multistate mark-recapture methods to (1) test for differences in survival probability between migrants and residents, (2) determine if migrants breed every year or skip opportunities for reproduction, and (3) estimate the frequency of individuals switching migratory tactic. We used estimates of life history parameters from the natural populations in combination with previous experimental work to evaluate processes maintaining partial migration at the population level and to assess mechanisms influencing the decision to migrate. Based on capture-recapture information on over 3000 individuals, we found that newts can switch migratory tactics over their lifetime. We conclude that migrants and residents coexist through conditional asymmetries, with residents having higher fitness and inferior individuals adopting the migrant tactic. We found that newts are more likely to switch from residency to migrating than the reverse and males were more likely to remain as residents. Migration differences between the sexes are likely driven by reproduction benefits of residency for males and high energetic costs of breeding resulting in lower breeding frequencies for females. Environmental conditions also influence partial migration within a population; we found support for density-dependent processes in the pond strongly influencing the probability of migrating. Our work illustrates how migration can be influenced by a complex range of individual and environmental factors and enhances our understanding of the conditions necessary for the evolution and maintenance of partial migration within populations.

Abstract. Partial migration, variation in the percentage of a population that completes a migration, can be influenced by the local environment and condition of an individual. We examined the direct and interacting effects of habitat quality and gender on migration decision by manipulating population density and sex ratio in a factorial field experiment using aquatic enclosures. In partially migrating red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens), we measured the percentage of newts migrating to the terrestrial habitat vs. overwintering as pond residents. Density significantly influenced migration, with 63% of newts migrating from high-density enclosures compared to 39% from low-density enclosures. Newts also migrated earlier from high-density enclosures, but no significant effects of the sex ratio treatment were found. Females migrated earlier than males, and 64% more females developed the migrant phenotype, suggesting important sex-based trade-offs of migration. No differences were found between migrants and residents in initial body size, counter to our prediction that larger individuals would be more likely to remain pond residents. This study demonstrates experimentally that migration can be a plastic response influenced by both local density and gender.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying population declines is critical for preventing the extinction of endangered populations. Positive feedbacks can hasten the process of collapse and create an ‘extinction vortex,’ particularly in small, isolated populations. We provide a case study of a male-biased sex ratio creating the conditions for extinction in a natural population of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) on North Brother Island in the Cook Strait of New Zealand. We combine data from long term mark-recapture surveys, updated model estimates of hatchling sex ratio, and population viability modeling to measure the impacts of sex ratio skew. Results from the mark-recapture surveys show an increasing decline in the percentage of females in the adult tuatara population. Our monitoring reveals compounding impacts on female fitness through reductions in female body condition, fecundity, and survival as the male-bias in the population has increased. Additionally, we find that current nest temperatures are likely to result in more male than female hatchlings, owing to the pattern of temperature-dependent sex determination in tuatara where males hatch at warmer temperatures. Anthropogenic climate change worsens the situation for this isolated population, as projected temperature increases for New Zealand are expected to further skew the hatchling sex ratio towards males. Population viability models predict that without management intervention or an evolutionary response, the population will ultimately become entirely comprised of males and functionally extinct. Our study demonstrates that sex ratio bias can be an underappreciated threat to population viability, particularly in populations of long-lived organisms that appear numerically stable.

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