Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted

Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco

doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616

Cited by 670 publications

(364 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…There is even now an opinion that earthquakes could be inherently unpredictable (5). The argument is that past failures and recent theories suggest fundamental obstacles to prediction.…”

Section: Toward a Prediction Of Earthquakes?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this ''fractal'' framework, there is no characteristic scale, and the power law distribution of earthquake sizes reflects the fact that large earthquakes are nothing but small earthquakes that did not stop. They are thus unpredictable because their nucleation is not different from that of the multitude of small earthquakes, which obviously cannot be all predicted (5).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

Sornette

2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

262

196

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We propose that catastrophic events are ''outliers'' with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. We describe a unifying approach for modeling and predicting these catastrophic events or ''ruptures,'' that is, sudden transitions from a quiescent state to a crisis. Such ruptures involve interactions between structures at many different scales. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence, and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes, and human parturition (birth). Future improvements will involve combining ideas and tools from statistical physics and artificial͞computational intelligence, to identify and classify possible universal structures that occur at different scales, and to develop application-specific methodologies to use these structures for prediction of the ''crises'' known to arise in each application of interest. We live on a planet and in a society with intermittent dynamics rather than a state of equilibrium, and so there is a growing and urgent need to sensitize students and citizens to the importance and impacts of ruptures in their multiple forms.

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“…There is even now an opinion that earthquakes could be inherently unpredictable (5). The argument is that past failures and recent theories suggest fundamental obstacles to prediction.…”

Section: Toward a Prediction Of Earthquakes?mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

Sornette

2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

262

196

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Characterizing predictability in relation to "understandability" yields an even greater level of insight for further action. For example, earthquakes are reasonably well understood in terms of mechanism and distribution, but they are (thus far) unpredictable (Geller et al, 1997). Reduction of vulnerability thus appropriately focuses on application of probabilistic models for structural design, vulnerability assessment, and post-disaster recovery rather than on evacuation plans or highly site-specific hazard mitigation.…”

Section: Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Events: A Research and Policy Framework for Disasters in Context

Pielke

2001

International Geology Review

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Extreme events are significant determinants of the character and evolution of many natural and human systems. When extreme events occur at the interface between natural and human systems, they are often called "disasters." Here, we use a systemic, contextual view of disasters to construct a framework for organizing research and policy. Within this framework, reduction of vulnerability is the organizing principle, and decision processes (which lead to reduced vulnerability) are the fundamental unit of analysis and action. Scientific research is connected to decision processes through knowledge-integrating activities such as prediction, observation, and heuristics. But the value of research depends on its capacity to enhance decision-making capabilities. Our goal is to define an approach by which policy-relevant research questions can be more readily recognized. and societally valuable (i.e., vulnerability-reducing) knowledge can be more effectively created and used.

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“…The socio-economic impacts of earthquakes for relatively small regions which are bordering specific seismic sources could be estimated by DSHA since this method is useful for the particular case. However, it is impossible to predict the exact future earthquakes and earthquake randomness is of high aleatory uncertainties [5]. In order to account these uncertainties, the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%