Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

Sornette, Didier

doi:10.1073/pnas.022581999

Cited by 263 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…floods [30], earthquakes [31], snow avalanches [32], to financial crises [33] and social reactions to extreme events [34]. Most of these natural systems have a complex evolution characterized by catastrophic, extreme events that appear at intermittent intervals and have a large impact on the long-term behavior of the systems [35]. In physics, determining the likelihood of these rare events is important to a variety of problems.…”

Section: Quantitiymentioning

confidence: 99%

Universal fluctuations and extreme statistics of avalanches near the depinning transition

et al. 2013

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We derive exact predictions for universal scaling exponents and scaling functions associated with the statistics of maximum velocities vm during avalanches described by the mean field theory of the interface depinning transition. In particular, we find a robust power-law regime in the statistics of maximum events that can explain the observed distribution of the peak amplitudes in acoustic emission experiments of crystal plasticity. Our results are expected to be broadly applicable to a broad range of systems in the mean-field interface depinning universality class, ranging from magnets to earthquakes.

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Section: Quantitiymentioning

confidence: 99%

Universal fluctuations and extreme statistics of avalanches near the depinning transition

et al. 2013

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“…Regarding any possible existing earthquake precursors Geller et al (1997) also state "Thousands of observations of allegedly anomalous phenomena (seismological, geodetic, hydrological, geochemical, electromagnetic, animal behavior, and so forth) have been claimed as earthquake precursors, but in general, the phenomena were claimed as precursors after the earthquakes occurred". Furthermore, Sornette (2002) wrote "There is a series of surprizing and Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union and the American Geophysical Union.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency distributions: from the sun to the earth

Crosby

2011

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. The space environment is forever changing on all spatial and temporal scales. Energy releases are observed in numerous dynamic phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particle events) where measurements provide signatures of the dynamics. Parameters (e.g. peak count rate, total energy released, etc.) describing these phenomena are found to have frequency size distributions that follow power-law behavior. Natural phenomena on Earth, such as earthquakes and landslides, display similar power-law behavior. This suggests an underlying universality in nature and poses the question of whether the distribution of energy is the same for all these phenomena. Frequency distributions provide constraints for models that aim to simulate the physics and statistics observed in the individual phenomenon. The concept of self-organized criticality (SOC), also known as the "avalanche concept", was introduced by Bak et al. (1987Bak et al. ( , 1988, to characterize the behavior of dissipative systems that contain a large number of elements interacting over a short range. The systems evolve to a critical state in which a minor event starts a chain reaction that can affect any number of elements in the system. It is found that frequency distributions of the output parameters from the chain reaction taken over a period of time can be represented by power-laws. During the last decades SOC has been debated from all angles. New SOC models, as well as non-SOC models have been proposed to explain the powerlaw behavior that is observed. Furthermore, since Bak's pioneering work in 1987, people have searched for signatures of SOC everywhere. This paper will review how SOC behavior has become one way of interpreting the power-law behavior observed in natural occurring phenomenon in the Sun down to the Earth.

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“…Kossobokov and Keilis-Borok [112] have explored similarities of multiple fracturing on a neutron star and on the Earth, including power-law energy distributions, clustering, and the symptoms of transition to a major rupture. Sornette and Helmstetter [113] have presented occurrence of finite-time singularities in epidemic models of rupture, EQs, and starquakes. Abe and Suzuki [114] have shown that internet shares with EQs common scale-invariant features in its temporal behaviours.…”

Section: Universality Among Various Geophysical and Biological Catastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are There Pre-Seismic Electromagnetic Precursors? A Multidisciplinary Approach

Eftaxias¹

2012

Earthquake Research and Analysis - Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning

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11www.intechopen.com 2 Will-be-set-by-IN-TECH spectrum ranging from kHz to MHz are produced by opening cracks, which can be considered as the so-called precursors of general fracture. The radiated EM precursors are detectable both at a laboratory [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] and geological scale .Data collection: Since 1994, a station has been installed and operated at a mountainous site of Zante island (37.76 o N − 20.76 o E) in the Ionian Sea (western Greece). The main aim of this station is the detection of kHz-MHz EM precursors. Six loop antennas detect the three components (EW, NS, and vertical) of the variations of the magnetic field at 3 kHz and 10 kHz respectively; three vertical λ/2 electric dipoles detect the electric field variations at 41, 54 MHz, and 135 MHz respectively. These frequencies were selected in order to minimize the effects of the sources of man-made noise in the mountain area of the Zante Island. Moreover, two Short Thin Wire Antennas, oriented at EW and NS directions of length of 100 m, respectively, have been also installed. The aim of the last installation is the detection of ultra-low-frequency (< 1Hz) EM precursors rooted in a preseismic lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-coupling. All the EM time series were sampled at 1 Hz. Such an experimental setup helps to specify not only whether or not a single EM anomaly is preseismic in itself, but also whether a sequence of EM disturbances at different frequencies, which are emerged one after the other in a short time period, could be characterized as preseismic one. Clear such EM precursors have been detected over periods ranging from approximately a week to a few hours prior to catastrophic EQs that occurred in Greece or Italy (e.g., [21,22,[25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]). We emphasize that the detected precursors were associated with EQs: (i) occurred in land (or near coast-line); (ii) were strong, i.e., with magnitude 6 or larger; and (iii) were shallow. Recent results indicate that the recorded EM precursors contain information characteristic of an ensuing seismic event (e.g., [21,22,[25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]).An important feature, observed both at laboratory and geophysical scale, is that it the MHz radiation precedes the kHz one [25,[27][28][29]35,36]. Studies on the small (laboratory) scale reveal that the kHz EM emission is launched in the tail of pre-fracture EM emission from 97% up to 100% of the corresponding failure strength [25 and references therein]. At the geophysical scale the kHz EM precursors are emerged from a few days up to a few hours before the EQ occurrence. The association of MHz, kHz EM precursors with the last stages of EQ generation is justified.The origin of EM emissions. The origin of EM emissions from fracture is not completely clear, and different attempts have been made in order to explain it [8, 32 and references therein]. A relevant attempt is related to the "capacitor model" [32]. In many materials, emission of photons, electrons, ions and neutral p...

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Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

Cited by 263 publications

References 72 publications

Universal fluctuations and extreme statistics of avalanches near the depinning transition

Universal fluctuations and extreme statistics of avalanches near the depinning transition

Frequency distributions: from the sun to the earth

Are There Pre-Seismic Electromagnetic Precursors? A Multidisciplinary Approach

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