Earthquake Early Warning in Central America: The Societal Perspective

Orihuela, benazir; Dallo, Irina; Clinton, John; Strauch, W.; Protti, M.; Yani, Robin; Marroquín, Griselda; Sánchez, Jacqueline; Vega, Floribeth; Marti, Michèle; Massin, Frédérick; Böse, Maren; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4348227

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 56 publications

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“…Thus, comparisons with countries with a higher vulnerability may reveal differences regarding system preferences and protective actions people would take. We thus collaborate with a research group which is assessing public perception of EEW systems in Central America [75] to provide further cross-cultural comparisons.…”

Section: Limitations and Practical Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake early warning in countries where damaging earthquakes only occur every 50 to 150 years – The societal perspective

Dallo

Marti

Clinton

et al. 2022

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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Section: Limitations and Practical Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake early warning in countries where damaging earthquakes only occur every 50 to 150 years – The societal perspective

Dallo

Marti

Clinton

et al. 2022

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions

Mizrahi,

Dallo,

van der Elst

et al. 2024

Reviews of Geophysics

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While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision‐making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near‐real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF‐related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non‐representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user‐dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

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Earthquake Early Warning in Central America: The Societal Perspective

Cited by 2 publications

References 56 publications

Earthquake early warning in countries where damaging earthquakes only occur every 50 to 150 years – The societal perspective

Earthquake early warning in countries where damaging earthquakes only occur every 50 to 150 years – The societal perspective

Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions

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