Earthquake damage assessment for deterministic scenarios in Iquique, Chile

Aguirre, Paula; Vasquez, Julio Estuardo; Llera, Juan Carlos de la; González, J. A.; González, Gabriel

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3258-3

Cited by 33 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Moreover, it only considers buildings up to 19 storeys. This is in contrast with Jiménez, et al (2018) and Aguirre et al (2018) that both report higher rise and steel-type building classes for the study area.…”

Section: The Definition Of the Likelihood Function: The Intra-scheme contrasting

confidence: 81%

“…SARA constitutes an effort to harmonize and define all the building types in the South-American Andes region (GEM, 2014) largely based in the World House Encyclopaedia reports (WHE, 2014) through expert judgment and has let us to infer 17 building class for Valparaiso combining the storey ranges when it was possible. HAZUS addresses 11 ones according to Aguirre et al (2018). Every building class within both schemes has an associated fragility function reported in and FEMA (2012) respectively.…”

Section: The Definition Of the Likelihood Function: The Intra-scheme mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Zapata¹,

Pittore²,

Cotton³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In seismic risk assessment the sources of uncertainty associated to building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. We are introducing that the degree of knowledge of a building portfolio can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach to acknowledge the epistemic uncertainty of its composition (i.e. proportions per building class). We are investigating the impact of such uncertainty on earthquake loss models through a novel approach based on an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement and scenario-based seismic risk simulations. We have found that the building class reconnaissance either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach) or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in statistical modelling of exposure. We successively show that the selection of the basic set of building classes is a major contribution to the uncertainties in the loss estimations given their dependence on specific fragility functions. If the set of fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods, cross-correlated ground motion fields are required for the vulnerability assessment which ultimately control the variability of the losses. When the exposure composition is poorly known due to, for instance, simplifications and assumptions over aggregated data, its absolute contribution to the loss uncertainties has been found to be larger than the one imposed by the spatially distributed cross-correlated ground motion fields. This work invites to redesign desktop exposure studies, while it also highlights the importance of a standardized iterative approach to exposure data collection and modelling.

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Section: The Definition Of the Likelihood Function: The Intra-scheme contrasting

confidence: 81%

Section: The Definition Of the Likelihood Function: The Intra-scheme mentioning

confidence: 99%

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Zapata¹,

Pittore²,

Cotton³

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The majority of existing studies use census data in combination with other public databases to model exposure. This approach has been used by Santa María et al (2017) to generate an exposure model of residential structures for the whole country with a census-block resolution, and by Aguirre et al (2018) to develop a detailed building-by-building exposure model of the city of Iquique. Remote sensing data have also been used for exposure modelling.…”

Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 99%

An interdisciplinary study of the seismic exposure dynamics of Santiago de Chile

Rivera

Rossetto

Twigg

2020

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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This paper presents an interdisciplinary study on the spatiotemporal dynamics of seismic exposure. Out of the three components of risk-hazard, exposure, and vulnerability-exposure is the least studied, and is commonly treated as being constant in time. This approach neglects the dynamics associated with rapid development and urbanization, misrepresenting exposure in risk assessments. In this paper, mixed research methods are used to understand the dynamics of exposure in Santiago, the capital of Chile, between 1992 and 2017. First, residential exposure is modelled for three epochs using census data and public databases. Then, semi-structured interviews are conducted with local experts in engineering, planning, and disaster risk reduction to unveil the role of earthquake risk information in urban policy and development. Results show a steady expansion and densification of the city over the last 25 years, which is expected to continue in the future. The preferred building material for this growth is reinforced concrete, which rises from 3 to 17% as a proportion of the total structures in the city. It is also found that urban planning policy is disconnected from earthquake risk, which is perceived as a non-issue due to high local compliance with seismic codes. Thus, the continuous growth and homogenization of the built environment creates a singular dependence and blind trust in the local seismic academic and professional communities to provide earthquake resilience through safe buildings. These conditions configure a fragile but highly enabling environment for increasing seismic resilience in the city.

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“…Iquique (20°13′00″ S, 70°09′00″ W) is a coastal city located in northern Chile and is the capital and largest city of the Tarapacá region. The population of Iquique is approximately 180,000 people, and the city represents the fifth most important port of the country (Aguirre et al 2018). The city is located in a subduction zone and underwent a M w 8.2 earthquake in 2014, which produced a tsunami that reached the city only 19 min after the event.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

et al. 2019

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Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.

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Earthquake damage assessment for deterministic scenarios in Iquique, Chile

Cited by 33 publications

References 30 publications

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

An interdisciplinary study of the seismic exposure dynamics of Santiago de Chile

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

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