Early-stage loss of ecological integrity drives the risk of zoonotic disease emergence

Abstract

Anthropogenic pressures have increasingly disrupted the integrity of ecosystems worldwide, jeopardizing their capacity to provide essential contributions to human well-being. Recently, the role of natural ecosystems in reducing disease emergence risk has gained prominence in decision-making processes, as scientific evidence indicates that human-driven pressure, such as habitat destruction and deforestation, can trigger the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. However, the intricate relationship between biodiversity and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) remains only partially understood. Here, we updated the most comprehensive zoonotic EID event database with the latest reported events to analyse the relationship between EIDs of wildlife origin (zoonoses) and various facets of ecological integrity. We found EID risk was strongly predicted by structural integrity metrics such as human footprint and ecoregion intactness, in addition to environmental variables such as tropical rainforest density and mammal species richness. EID events were more likely to occur in areas with intermediate levels of compositional and structural integrity, underscoring the risk posed by human encroachment into pristine, undisturbed lands. Our study highlights the need to identify novel indicators and targets that can effectively address EID risk alongside other pressing global challenges in sustainable development, ultimately informing strategies for preserving both human and environmental health.