Dynamics of Trade Specialization in Developed and Less Developed Countries

Wörz, Julia

doi:10.1080/1540496x.2005.11052607

Cited by 34 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The overview of existing studies (usually limiting the analysis to the data of one type) gives a rather mixed picture. There is some evidence for the decreasing degree of export intensity in Europe (Aiginger et al 1999), in OECD countries (Laursen 2000), or in a heterogeneous group of developed and developing economies (Wörz 2005). At the same time, other studies confirm increasing trends of industrial specialisation in Europe (Aiginger and Davies 2004;Amiti 1999;Brülhart 1998).…”

mentioning

confidence: 63%

Employment and export specialisation along the development path: some robust evidence

Parteka

2009

Rev World Econ

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This paper contributes to the literature on the evolution of overall specialisation along the process of economic development by simultaneously estimating 'specialisation curves' emerging from fully comparable employment and export statistics in a sample of 32 economies . We apply semiparametric estimation methods, which allow us to combine the flexibility of the estimation with the inclusion of country-specific effects, demonstrating that their omission can be the source of contradictions in nonparametrically revealed patterns of diversification along the path of growth. We find no strong support for a U-shaped pattern (which is very sensitive to the methodological setting applied) but rather a robust tendency towards manufacturing despecialisation in the initial phase of economic growth that is confirmed both by export and employment specialisation patterns.

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confidence: 63%

Employment and export specialisation along the development path: some robust evidence

Parteka

2009

Rev World Econ

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“…capital is relevant as witnessed by the 'intrusion' of newly industrialized countries into the realm of North-North intra-industry trade (see Wörz 2005).…”

Section: Estimation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration

Ziesemer

2010

Economic Modelling

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Abstract. The credit crisis of OECD countries has a negative impact on the growth of the world economy according to a simple error correction model. This causes negative growth effects in poor developing countries. The reduced growth has a direct or indirect impact on the convergence issue, aid, remittances, labour force growth, investment and savings, net foreign debt, migration, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and literacy. We estimate dynamic equations of all these variables using dynamic panel data methods for a panel of countries with per capita income below $1200 (2000). The estimated equations are then integrated to a dynamic system of fourteen equations for fourteen variables that allows for highly non-linear baseline simulations for these open economies. Then we analyze the effects of shocks as predicted by the international organizations for the OECD and world growth for 2008 and 2009. Whereas growth rates return to the baseline scenario very quickly, the GDP per capita returns to its baseline level in OECD countries and the world economy after some years but in poor developing countries it remains below the baseline scenario for more than 200 years. This long run blow to convergence leads to more remittances and emigration, a lower labour force growth, higher shares of GDP for saving, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and investment, and higher literacy. However, all these stabilizing forces through remittances and emigration cannot compensate the losses in levels of growth. Short and medium run effects are driven by a return to baseline for OECD and world GDP growth rates by the end of 2010, but for levels only 10 to 30 years later. Therefore we first get 15 to 20 years of fewer remittances, tax revenues, savings, public expenditure on education, literacy, and investment, more emigration and lower labour force growth.

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“…Parallel to the integration process in the world market, a critical issue on the country-specific specialization and the dynamic shifts in comparative advantage patterns emerges. Isogai et al (2002), James and Movshuk (2003), Ng and Yeats (2003), Roland (2003), Hinloopen and Marrewijk (2001;, Batra and Khan (2005), and Wörz (2005) have examined the issue.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With many countries and industries, as well as the different initial distributions of exports and imports across countries and industries in the Asian region, different outcomes might be possible. Aiginger (1999) and Wörz (2005) state four possible combinations between the trade specialization and convergence in the trade patterns. All of which are depicted in Figure 1-i.e.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As far as the patterns of comparative advantage are concerned, it might be argued that the advanced countries will have a less dynamic structural change in their comparative advantage due to the domestic full employment if it is compared with that of the less developed countries. Hence, the comparative advantage and steadiness of the pattern seem to be in the parallel direction with the prosperous development (Wörz 2005). As emerging countries, it is theoretically believed that China and India will try to raise their comparative advantages and to specialize in products with higher comparative advantages.…”

Section: Shifts In the Pattern Of Comparative Advantagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shifts in Pattern of Specialization: Case Studies of India and China

Widodo

2008

GADJAH MADA INT. J. BUS.

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This paper examines shifts in pattern of specialization of China’s and India’s exported groups of products defined in the three-digit Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Revision 2. This paper applies Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) index and Spearman’s rank correlation. Some conclusions are withdrawn. First, on average the comparative advantages of both China and India increase, except in the case of China for the period of 1998-2003. Second, China’s pattern of comparative advantage changes more dynamically than that of India. Third, the China’s and India’s patterns of comparative advantage show different trends (divergent/more complementary).

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Dynamics of Trade Specialization in Developed and Less Developed Countries

Cited by 34 publications

References 6 publications

Employment and export specialisation along the development path: some robust evidence

Employment and export specialisation along the development path: some robust evidence

The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration

Shifts in Pattern of Specialization: Case Studies of India and China

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