Dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence in Russia following the Chernobyl accident

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in the territories of Russia most contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. In the work, data on incidence in the Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel and Tula regions (5298000 persons) are used. Altogether, 2599 cases of thyroid cancer are considered from 1982 to 1995. Of them, 143 cases were among the population who were children and adolescents at the time of the accident in 1986. The work uses the approach based on comparison of distributions of thyroid cancer cases by age at diagnosis and age at exposure. It has been shown that since 1991 the age structure of the incidence has changed significantly with a growing proportion of cases among children and adolescents. The change in the structure occurred due to the radiation factor, specifically as a result of exposure of thyroid to incorporated 131I. It has been shown that the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of thyroid cancer among children who were 0-4 years at exposure in 1991-6 was 6 to 10 times higher than among adults. On the average, SIR for children and adolescents at the time of exposure is about three times higher than in adults.

Thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine: trends with reference to the Chernobyl accident

“…One may conceive from these results that there is a probable excess in radiation-induced thyroid cancer cases in exposed people, especially in females, irrespectively of age at the accident. This conclusion seems quite important because even relatively recent papers report a lack of convincing evidence of radiation excess in thyroid cancer in exposed adults (Ivanov et al 1999;Moysich et al 2002;Hatch et al 2005;Williams 2008;Ron 2007). …”

History of Nuclear and Radiological Accidents in the World and Turkey

“…Bu kazadan 12 yıl öncesi ile karşılaştırıldığında tiroid kanserlerinde 3,9 kat artış ile uyumludur. Tiroid kanserlerindeki artıştan özellikle I-131 olmak üzere iyot izotoplarının salınımı ve erken dönemde stabil iyot dağıtımının yapılmamış olması sorumlu tutulmuştur (8,9). …”

Les accidents d'irradiation, 1950-2000 leçons du passé

“…En 1999, le nombre total de cancers de la thyroïde de l'enfant pour l'Ukraine, le Belarus et la Russie est estimé à environ 1 500, sans qu'il soit possible de prévoir si l'excès va continuer, se stabiliser ou décroître (Tronko et al, 1999 ;Ivanov et al, 1999 …”