Dynamics of the Third wave, modelling COVID-19 pandemic with an outlook towards India

Basak, Ayanava; Rahaman, Sayanur; Guha, Abhishek; Sanyal, Tanmay

doi:10.1101/2021.08.17.21262193

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…Traditional medicines have been used to treat and prevent COVID-19 in China, South Korea, and India [ 30 ]. The infection rate in the second wave was found to be 3.78 times higher than in the first wave [ 31 ]. A global effort was exerted to combat the pandemic, with many organizations raising donations and humanitarian relief funds.…”

Section: Covid-19 Cases Across the Worldmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Different Vaccines and Strategies to Combat COVID-19

et al. 2022

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In December 2019, an unknown viral infection emerged and quickly spread worldwide, resulting in a global pandemic. This novel virus caused severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has caused 6.25 millions of deaths worldwide and remains a major concern for health, society, and the economy. As vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to combat this pandemic, different vaccines were developed in a short period. This review article discusses how coronavirus affected the top nations of the world and the vaccines being used for the prevention. Amongst the vaccines, some vaccines have already been approved, and some have been involved in clinical studies. The article also provides insight into different COVID-19 vaccine platforms, their preparation, working, efficacy, and side effects.

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Section: Covid-19 Cases Across the Worldmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Different Vaccines and Strategies to Combat COVID-19

et al. 2022

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“…In particular, in our works [6][7][8][9][10][11], it was noted that specialists in the field of physical and mathematical sciences make an important contribution to research on the spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19. Works on statistical analysis [2][3][4][5][12][13][14][15], forecasting [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32], forecasting systematization [33,34], spatial-temporary modeling of the spread of the new coronavirus [35][36][37][38] etc. was actively continuing in 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021

Amiranashvili

Khazaradze

Japaridze

2022

Preprint

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The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 contributed to positive trends in the spread of COVID-19 until February - the first half of March 2021. Then, in April-May 2021, the epidemiological situation worsened significantly, and from June to the end of December COVID - situation in Georgia was very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in investigation period (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in October 2021 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, and in September - in the 1 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirteenth) in December, and in mortality (fifth) - in October. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 76.8 % (September 03, 2021), the smallest 18.7 % (November 10, 2021). As in previous work [9,10] the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6024 (November 3, 2021), R = 6017 (November 15, 2021), D = 86 (September 3, 2021), I = 12.04 % (November 24, 2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4757 (1 Decade of November 2021), R = 4427 (3 Decade of November 2021), D = 76 (2 Decade of November 2021), I = 10.55 % (1 Decade of November 2021). It was found that as in spring and summer 2021 [9,10], from September to December 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R, D and I have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months for the indicated period of time were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +139 cases/day (1 Decade of October 2021), V(R) = +124 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(D) = +1.7 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(I) = + 0.20 %/ day (1 decades of October 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 12 and 14 days after infection (CR=0.77 and 0.78 respectively), and deaths - after 7, 9, 11, 13 and 14 days (0.70≤CR≤0.72); from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 14 days after infection (RC=0.71), and deaths - after 9 days (CR=0.43). In Georgia from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to 28 and 35 days respectively; from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - up to 21 and 29 days respectively. Comparison of daily real and calculated monthly predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in investigation period of time daily and mean monthly real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. Traditionally, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.

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“…Based on the different variants of the virus and the number of cases, three distinct waves of the pandemic have been identified at the health policy level and in the literature, as well from the outbreak to the summer 2021. The intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic had significant differences in its geographical distribution and timing across the globe [17][18][19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Sports in the Subjective Psychological Well-Being of Hungarian Adult Population in Three Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Laczkó

Ács

Morvay-Sey

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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(1) Background: In this study, sport and subjective psychological well-being is investigated in three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Methods: We have conducted three different representative sample surveys (n = 3600 altogether) on the Hungarian adult population and investigated the sample’s subjective psychological well-being with the WHO-5 Well-Being Index, as well as changes in their subjective well-being through the different waves of the pandemic. Sporting habits and socio-economic variables were also surveyed, and OLS regression models were created focused on the WHO-5 measures. (3) Results: The subjective psychological well-being of the Hungarian adult population decreased significantly, but in the second and third wave of pandemic restrictions, an increase in subjective psychological well-being has been measured. The relationships between the time spent on doing sports and subjective psychological well-being were significant in each pandemic waves. The highest subjective psychological well-being and its highest increase were reported by those who could increase their time spent on doing sports as well. (4) Conclusions: The relationships between the sports activities, physical health, size of settlement, changes in income and subjective psychological well-being of the Hungarian adult population were significant in all three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Dynamics of the Third wave, modelling COVID-19 pandemic with an outlook towards India

Cited by 7 publications

References 21 publications

A Review of Different Vaccines and Strategies to Combat COVID-19

A Review of Different Vaccines and Strategies to Combat COVID-19

The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021

The Role of Sports in the Subjective Psychological Well-Being of Hungarian Adult Population in Three Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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