Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission including indirect transmission mechanisms: a mathematical analysis

Meiksin, Avery

doi:10.1017/s0950268820002563

Cited by 35 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…According to a recent systematic review, in household settings, contamination of patients’ surroundings was as high as 14%, with patients’ utensils, electronic high-touch surfaces, beds, and floors representing the most frequently contaminated surfaces [ 80 ]. Finally, since fomite transmission is difficult to prove, some publications used mathematical models to demonstrate the contribution of fomites to the growth of the epidemic via transmission, underscoring the need for awareness of this important aspect of transmission [ 81 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 transmission: a rapid systematic review of current knowledge

Mourmouris¹,

Tzelves

Roidi

et al. 2021

Osong Public Health Res Perspect

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Coronavirus disease 2019 was declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization; since then, the disease has spread to more than 129 million people and has claimed more than 2,8 milllion lives [1]. This novel coronavirus disease has proven, so far, to be both highly transmittable (unlike severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] and Middle East respiratory syndrome [MERS]) and not too fatal (unlike Ebola) [2]. Numerous reports concerning vehicles of transmission have been published, implicating a vast spectrum of possible transmission routes, including fomites [3], asymptomatic transmission (through simple exhalation) [4], and body fluids and secretions. In this systematic review, the first in the current literature according to our knowledge, we analyzed all available data on the possible

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 transmission: a rapid systematic review of current knowledge

Mourmouris¹,

Tzelves

Roidi

et al. 2021

Osong Public Health Res Perspect

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although different studies have identified the survival characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, such as stainless steel, plastic, glass, etc. [19][20][21], no evidence of fomite transmission has been found yet at the current state of research [22] and its potential as transmission route was considered low by Mondelli et al [23]. • via small aerosols (characterised by a diameter lower than 5-10 μm) [24].…”

Section: Transmission Routes 31mentioning

confidence: 98%

An overview of solutions for airborne viral transmission reduction related to HVAC systems including liquid desiccant air-scrubbing

Giampieri¹,

Ling‐Chin²,

Ma³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The world is facing on-going challenges due to the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which is affecting the health of people worldwide and the economy of countries. Social distancing, lockdown and quarantine measures have been implemented globally to limit the spread of the virus with a profound impact on people’s lives. These are interventions which are not considered to be permanent and reproducible in the long-term. As more evidence is growing around the airborne transmission routes of the virus, as previously identified for other viruses such as tuberculosis, measles, influenza and coronaviruses, the role of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in buildings, enclosed spaces and public transport in limiting the transmission of airborne pathogens has become a topic of significant relevance. Although the HVAC strategies recommended by professional engineering associations are capable of minimising the transmission of airborne pathogens, they are also responsible for an increase in energy consumption and possibly in a reduction of thermal comfort for occupants. The objective of the study is to review the role of HVAC in airborne viral transmission, to estimate the energy penalty associated with the implementation of the main HVAC strategies for transmission reduction and understand the potential of liquid desiccant technology as an air scrubber. That is capable to a) energy-efficiently control temperature and humidity in buildings, enclosed spaces and public transport; b) increase the indoor air quality by offering the conditions of temperature and humidity less favourable to the growth, proliferation and infectivity of microorganisms; and c) inactivate pathogens. The main factors involved in the process of the inactivation of viruses or pathogens by liquid desiccant solutions are also described together with possible modifications to the solutions to increase their heat and mass transfer and sanitising characteristics. The study is ended by an economic evaluation of the potential energy benefits resulting from the use of liquid desiccant technology. It is concluded that the technology could be particularly favourable in those buildings where humidity control and/or moisture removal is required or in buildings where viruses are more likely to be present, such as in healthcare facilities/operating rooms, or in the event of an airborne viral outbreak.

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“…The average time from exposed to infectious state is taken to be D e = 4 days, and the characteristic time during which an individual is infectious is taken to be D i = 5 days. A mean infected fatality ratio 0.0050 is adopted (Meiksin, 2020;PHAS, 2020). Estimates for the mean lag time from onset of the infection to death range from 19 to 22 days (Davies et al, 2020;Flaxman et al, 2020).…”

Section: Seir Equations With a Fomite Termmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To give the limits on N f some context, the mean number C f of potentially contaminatable objects a person may come into contact with per day must be specified. An estimate for the post is C f 0.57 d −1 person −1 (Meiksin, 2020).…”

Section: Parameter Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The fomite contribution to the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK: an evolutionary population estimate

Meiksin

2021

Preprint

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A SEIR model with an added fomite term is used to constrain the contribution of fomites to the spread of COVID-19 under the Spring 2020 lockdown in the UK. Assuming uniform priors on the reproduction number in lockdown and the fomite transmission rate, an upper limit is found on the fomite transmission rate of less than 1 contaminated object in 7 per day per infectious person (95% CL). Basing the prior on the reproduction rate during lockdown instead on the CoMix study results for the reduction in social contacts under lockdown, and assuming the reproduction number scales with the number of social contacts, provides a much more restrictive upper limit on the transmission rate by contaminated objects of fewer than 1 in 30 per day per infectious person (95% CL). Applied to postal deliveries and groceries, the upper limit on the fomite transmission rate corresponds to a probability below 1 in 70 (95% CL) that a contaminated object transmits the infection. Fewer than about half (95% CL) of the total number of deaths during the lockdown are found to arise from fomites, and most likely fewer than a quarter. These findings apply only to fomites with a transmission rate that is unaffected by a lockdown.

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Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission including indirect transmission mechanisms: a mathematical analysis

Cited by 35 publications

References 15 publications

COVID-19 transmission: a rapid systematic review of current knowledge

COVID-19 transmission: a rapid systematic review of current knowledge

An overview of solutions for airborne viral transmission reduction related to HVAC systems including liquid desiccant air-scrubbing

The fomite contribution to the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK: an evolutionary population estimate

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