Dynamical Downscaling of Coastal Dynamics for Two Extreme Storm Surge Events in Japan

Trošelj, Joško; Ninomiya, Junichi; Takewaka, Satoshi; Mori, Nobuhito

doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.566277

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Modeled river discharge hydrographs at river mouths, such as the ensemble values in Figure 7, are useful input data to force coastal ocean models that can simulate the effect of extreme river water levels on coastal sea dynamics and associated storm surge and pollution transport disasters [51,[79][80][81][82][83]. Therefore, these accurate real-time river discharge predictions improve comprehensive land-river-ocean disaster prevention systems.…”

Section: Approach To Developing Flash Flood River Discharge Hydrograp...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing a Real-Time Flash Flood Predictive Accuracy Approach for the Development of Early Warning Systems: Hydrological Ensemble Hindcasts and Parameterizations

Trošelj,

Lee,

Hobohm

2023

Sustainability

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This study marks a significant step toward the future development of river discharges forecasted in real time for flash flood early warning system (EWS) disaster prevention frameworks in the Chugoku region of Japan, and presumably worldwide. To reduce the disaster impacts with EWSs, accurate integrated hydrometeorological real-time models for predicting extreme river water levels and discharges are needed, but they are not satisfactorily accurate due to large uncertainties. This study evaluates two calibration methods with 7 and 5 parameters using the hydrological Cell Distributed Runoff Model version 3.1.1 (CDRM), calibrated by the University of Arizona’s Shuffled Complex Evolution optimization method (SCE-UA). We hypothesize that the proposed ensemble hydrological parameter calibration approach can forecast similar future events in real time. This approach was applied to seven major rivers in the region to obtain hindcasts of the river discharges during the Heavy Rainfall Event of July 2018 (HRE18). This study introduces a new historical extreme rainfall event classification selection methodology that enables ensemble-averaged validation results of all river discharges. The reproducibility metrics obtained for all rivers cumulatively are extremely high, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.98. This shows that the proposed approach enables accurate predictions of the river discharges for the HRE18 and, similarly, real-time forecasts for future extreme rainfall-induced events in the Japanese region. Although our methodology can be directly reapplied only in regions where observed rainfall data are readily available, we suggest that our approach can analogously be applied worldwide, which indicates a broad scientific contribution and multidisciplinary applications.

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Section: Approach To Developing Flash Flood River Discharge Hydrograp...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing a Real-Time Flash Flood Predictive Accuracy Approach for the Development of Early Warning Systems: Hydrological Ensemble Hindcasts and Parameterizations

Trošelj,

Lee,

Hobohm

2023

Sustainability

Self Cite

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Real-time flash flood forecasting approach for development of early warning systems: integrated hydrological and meteorological application

Trošelj,

Nayak,

Hobohm

et al. 2023

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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Dynamical Downscaling of Coastal Dynamics for Two Extreme Storm Surge Events in Japan

Abstract: Graphical AbstractStudy domains and model setup (up-left), Sea Surface Height results validation (up-right), Sea Surface Salinity results validation (down-left) and impact of the two storm surge events to the associated coastal dynamics variables (down-right).

Cited by 2 publications

References 42 publications

Enhancing a Real-Time Flash Flood Predictive Accuracy Approach for the Development of Early Warning Systems: Hydrological Ensemble Hindcasts and Parameterizations

Enhancing a Real-Time Flash Flood Predictive Accuracy Approach for the Development of Early Warning Systems: Hydrological Ensemble Hindcasts and Parameterizations

Real-time flash flood forecasting approach for development of early warning systems: integrated hydrological and meteorological application

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