Dynamic risk assessment method – a proposal for assessing risk in water supply system / Metoda dynamicznego szacowania ryzyka – propozycja oceny ryzyka w systemie zaopatrzenia wody

Abstract

System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specifi c scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.Unauthenticated Download Date | 5/12/18 7:09 AM

Archives of Environmental Protection

“… there is a great variety of microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, protozoa) in the surface water with a signifi cant resistance to the disinfectants used in water treatment, e.g. intestinal viruses, bacteria spores and protozoan cysts (Banihashemi et al 2015, Fortmann-Roe et al 2015),  it is currently impossible to eff ectively remove pathogens with an application of physical and chemical methods without forming undesirable disinfection by-products (Costet et al 2011, Chuang and Tung 2014, Hua et al 2015),  the water distribution system is a large, specialized and not well inspected physico-chemical and biological hydraulic reactor with ideal conditions for the recontamination of water (Lipponen et al 2004, Hoefel et al 2005, Zhang et al 2009, Scott et al 2015). The results of the studies demonstrate a demand for disinfection to act as a functional element of the integrated water distribution system and an active intermediate link between the technology of the water treatment and water distribution network.…”