Dynamic risk and reliability assessment for ship machinery decision making

Abstract

The proposed research, through INCASS (Inspection Capabilities for Enhanced Ship Safety) FP7 EU funded research project tackles the issue of predictive ship machinery inspection by enhancing reliability and safety, avoiding accidents, and protecting the environment. This paper presents the development of Machinery Risk/Reliability Analysis (MRA). The innovation of this model is the consideration and assessment of components' risk of failure and reliability degradation by utilizing raw input data. MRA takes into account the system's dynamic state change, concerning failure rate variation over time. The presented methodology involves the generation of Markov Chains integrated with the advantages of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). INCASS project developed a measurement campaign, where real time sensor data is recorded onboard a tanker, bulk carrier and container ship. The gathered data is utilized for MRA DSS tool validation and testing. Following research involves components and systems interdependencies and feed the continuous dynamic probabilistic condition monitoring algorithm.

A bibliometric review on maritime inspection analysis: Current and future insights

“…Predictive analytics XGBoost model 55 Machine learning 52 Bayesian network 19,22,23,53,[56][57][58][59] Support vector machine 31,54,60,61 Binary logistic regression 21,62,63 Bayesian belief networks 64 Q-learning algorithm 65 Poisson regression 27 Blockchain 20 Markov chains 64 K-nearest neighbor 65 from ships and inspections are expanded on the basis of possible methods and approaches, it may be possible to concentrate the studies on the prescriptive analytic approach in the future perspectives.…”

“…Qualitative research Mixed methods research Navas de Maya et al 28 , Osman et al 47 , Fu et al 49 , Yan et al 52 , Xiao et al 62 , Dikis et al 64 , Yang et al 67 , Yu et al 68 , Ukic ´Boljat et al 69 , Liu et al 70 Xiao et al 5 , Piniella et al 6 , Akyurek and Bolat 32 , Liou et al 34 , Osman et al 36 , Bielic ´et al 39 , Randic ´et al 45 , Akyurek and Bolat 71 , Knapp and van de Velden 72 , Chi and Jun 73 Cebi et al 4 , Yang et al 23 , Lin and Cheng 29 , Wang et al 33 , Sotiralis et al 35 , Graziano et al 38 , Wu et al 54 , Knapp and Franses 63 , Fu et al 74 , Cariou et al 75 Figure 12. The number of papers per year by the research fields.…”

Investigating an SVM-driven, one-class approach to estimating ship systems condition

“…In this scope, a machinery risk analysis tool that performs condition monitoring and maintenance decision support was developed. Dikis et al (2017) further elaborated on this tool by considering and assessing components' risk of failure and reliability degradation by utilising raw input data. Furthermore, Gkerekos et al (2016Gkerekos et al ( , 2017b developed a self-learning model for the condition monitoring of ship machinery based on vibration measurements and raw physical data.…”

“…While current maintenance practices incorporate proactive maintenance aspects in many other industries, in shipping proactive maintenance remains way beyond current practice (Dikis et al 2017;Raptodimos and Lazakis 2018). Before the mass deployment of proactive maintenance strategies in a turnkey fashion, a robust predictive framework is required to be developed.…”

Safety performance assessment of a marine dual fuel engine by integrating failure mode, effects and criticality analysis with simulation tools

“…10 To mitigate the safety implications, and hence the hazardous conditions, the engine manufacturers employ several methods and tools to identify, analyse and control all the safety concerns during the design phase. 18,44 A number of approaches can be used for the systematic identification of hazards including Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP), System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). 20 The implementation of FMEA or FMECA is considered a pre-requisite for the type approval of marine engines by the Classification societies, and therefore, this method constitutes the most common approach employed for these engines safety assessment.…”