Dynamic Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Remote Mountainous Areas

Barros, A. P.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1195:dmotsd>2.0.co;2

Cited by 86 publications

(50 citation statements)

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“…These fields might then be used to enhance interpolated rainfall surfaces or satellite rainfall estimates. Lagrangian (Barros and Lettenmaier 1993) or statistical (Hevesi et al 1992a,b;Daly et al 1994;Thornton et al 1997;Kyriakidis et al 2001) approaches might also be used. High computation or data demands make these approaches impractical on an operational basis, especially over continental or climatological scales and particularly in developing countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Diagnostic Model of Orographic Rainfall for Enhancing Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in Data-Poor Regions

Funk

Michaelsen

2004

Journal of Applied Meteorology

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An extension of Sinclair's diagnostic model of orographic precipitation (''VDEL'') is developed for use in data-poor regions to enhance rainfall estimates. This extension (VDELB) combines a 2D linearized internal gravity wave calculation with the dot product of the terrain gradient and surface wind to approximate terraininduced vertical velocity profiles. Slope, wind speed, and stability determine the velocity profile, with either sinusoidal or vertically decaying (evanescent) solutions possible. These velocity profiles replace the parameterized functions in the original VDEL, creating VDELB, a diagnostic accounting for buoyancy effects. A further extension (VDELB*) uses an on/off constraint derived from reanalysis precipitation fields. A validation study over 365 days in the Pacific Northwest suggests that VDELB* can best capture seasonal and geographic variations. A new statistical data-fusion technique is presented and is used to combine VDELB*, reanalysis, and satellite rainfall estimates in southern Africa. The technique, matched filter regression (MFR), sets the variance of the predictors equal to their squared correlation with observed gauge data and predicts rainfall based on the first principal component of the combined data. In the test presented here, mean absolute errors from the MFR technique were 35% lower than the satellite estimates alone. VDELB assumes a linear solution to the wave equations and a Boussinesq atmosphere, and it may give unrealistic responses under extreme conditions. Nonetheless, the results presented here suggest that diagnostic models, driven by reanalysis data, can be used to improve satellite rainfall estimates in data-sparse regions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Diagnostic Model of Orographic Rainfall for Enhancing Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in Data-Poor Regions

Funk

Michaelsen

2004

Journal of Applied Meteorology

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“…The complexity of precipitation spatialization methods has been commented on by Barros and Lettenmaier (1993). When orographic effects are not well understood, complex approaches do not necessarily reproduce local measurements efficiently (Bénichou and Le Breton, 1987;Frei and Schär, 1998;Daly et al, 2002).…”

Section: Model Of Orographic Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Eeckman¹,

Chevallier²,

Boone³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper provides a new representation of the effect of altitude on precipitation that represents spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the Everest region. Exclusive observation data are used to infer a piecewise linear function for the relation between altitude and precipitation and significant seasonal variations are highlighted. An original ensemble approach is applied to provide non-deterministic water budgets for middle and high-mountain catchments. Physical processes at the soilatmosphere interface are represented through the Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) surface scheme. Uncertainties associated with the model parametrization are limited by the integration of in situ measurements of soils and vegetation properties. Uncertainties associated with the representation of the orographic effect are shown to account for up to 16 % of annual total precipitation. Annual evapotranspiration is shown to represent 26 % ± 1 % of annual total precipitation for the mid-altitude catchment and 34% ± 3 % for the high-altitude catchment. Snowfall contribution is shown to be neglectable for the mid-altitude catchment, and it represents up to 44 % ± 8 % of total precipitation for the highaltitude catchment. These simulations on the local scale enhance current knowledge of the spatial variability in hydroclimatic processes in high-and mid-altitude mountain environments.

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“…[25,26]); statistical analysis of local climatic fields (e.g. [27,28]); and the merging of several scenarios based on expert judgement (e.g. [8,9]).…”

Section: The Scenario Bazaarmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can we integrate climatic modelling and assessment?

Henderson‐Sellers

1996

Environ Model Assess

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The climatic change "debate" seems to be expanding faster than the available information base. National and international response strategies (mitigation and adaptation) are being discussed in board rooms, governments and the media. Phrases like "the uncertainty in the scenarios" appear to carry meaning but the information seems to be, at best, incomplete and, at worst, totally debased by multiple definitions and usages. "Scenarios" are predictions of possible futures. The "(nn)eertainty" that characterizes them encompasses prejudices, perspectives, incompleteness of information as well as the differences in completeness, accuracy and sensitivity of different forecasting tools. (Un)certainty is the source of experimentation and learning but excessive (un)certainty is noise and so the search for a signal requires its reduction. This reduction process can both promote planning and co-ordination but also quash unconventional, but ultimately valuable, ideas. Balancing this tension across the modern, multifaceted climatic "divisions" of technology, training, information access, understanding, terminology, economic development, societal flexibility and social and political perceptions is difficult. The current dysfunctioning of the international climatic information "industry" demands improved communication among these diverse communities. This paper discusses some of the difficulties as perceived by a physical scientist turned "gatekeeper" and proposes a twofold strategy for improving the situation: a climatic change information exchange and an explicit recognition of the need for cyclic social co-operation among the participating groups.

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Dynamic Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Remote Mountainous Areas

Cited by 86 publications

References 0 publications

A Simplified Diagnostic Model of Orographic Rainfall for Enhancing Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in Data-Poor Regions

A Simplified Diagnostic Model of Orographic Rainfall for Enhancing Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in Data-Poor Regions

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Can we integrate climatic modelling and assessment?

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