Can we integrate climatic modelling and assessment?

Abstract

The climatic change "debate" seems to be expanding faster than the available information base. National and international response strategies (mitigation and adaptation) are being discussed in board rooms, governments and the media. Phrases like "the uncertainty in the scenarios" appear to carry meaning but the information seems to be, at best, incomplete and, at worst, totally debased by multiple definitions and usages. "Scenarios" are predictions of possible futures. The "(nn)eertainty" that characterizes them encompasses prejudices, perspectives, incompleteness of information as well as the differences in completeness, accuracy and sensitivity of different forecasting tools. (Un)certainty is the source of experimentation and learning but excessive (un)certainty is noise and so the search for a signal requires its reduction. This reduction process can both promote planning and co-ordination but also quash unconventional, but ultimately valuable, ideas. Balancing this tension across the modern, multifaceted climatic "divisions" of technology, training, information access, understanding, terminology, economic development, societal flexibility and social and political perceptions is difficult. The current dysfunctioning of the international climatic information "industry" demands improved communication among these diverse communities. This paper discusses some of the difficulties as perceived by a physical scientist turned "gatekeeper" and proposes a twofold strategy for improving the situation: a climatic change information exchange and an explicit recognition of the need for cyclic social co-operation among the participating groups.

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

“…The range of plausible climate change scenarios is much greater than that determined by uncertainties in climate models alone, and depends to a considerable extent on future global demographic and technological change, land utilisation, and ecological adaptation. Thus, prediction is too ambitious a term for such a tentative and provisional exercise of looking into the future (Henderson-Sellers, 1996). 3 GCM can also stand for "global climate models."…”

Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 1. Mapping the outputs of phenology models to assess the likelihood of establishment

“…The caveats relating to the complexity of the overall biological system make it imperative that the spatial results are interpreted carefully by a biological expert and, ideally, subjected to a number of further sensitivity analyses. As Henderson Sellers commented regarding potential scenarios of climate change, these risk assessments should be seen as 'sketching images of the future' and providing 'vague contours of the plausible …' (Henderson-Sellers, 1996). Nevertheless, we argue that there is scope for fully spatial phenologies to form a useful role within the wider scientific toolbox that is required for the variety of tasks encompassed within the term pest risk analysis.…”

“…As Henderson Sellers commented regarding potential scenarios of climate change, these risk assessments should be seen as 'sketching images of the future' and providing 'vague contours of the plausible …' (Henderson-Sellers, 1996). As Henderson Sellers commented regarding potential scenarios of climate change, these risk assessments should be seen as 'sketching images of the future' and providing 'vague contours of the plausible …' (Henderson-Sellers, 1996).…”

Untitled

“…Before going into the EFIEA's planned activities in section 3, the next section briefly reviews the state-of-theart in integrated environmental assessment, justifying the need for a more structured approach to IEA. Other reviews and assessments can be found in Bailey [6], Bailey et al [7], Dowlatabadi [13], Henderson-Sellers [26], Hordijk and Kroeze [31], Morgan and Dowlatabadi [46], Parson [52][53][54], Risbey et al [64], Rotmans [68], Rotmans and Dowlatabadi [70], Rotmans and van Asselt [69], Schneider [72], Weyant [81] and Weyant et al [82]. Section 4 concludes by describing the possible benefits of the EFIEA.…”