Abstract. In operational flood risk management, a single
best model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent
uncertainties in the modelling process. We have used quantified
uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazard maps that were
combined based on different exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is
to differentiate the impacts of flooding depending on the building use, enabling, therefore, more flexibility for stakeholders' variable risk
perception profiles. The aim of the study is thus to develop a novel
methodology that uses a multi-model combination of flood forecasting models
to generate flood hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability.
These maps take into account uncertainties stemming from the rainfall–runoff
generation process and could be used by decision makers for a variety of
purposes in which the building use plays a significant role, e.g. flood
impact assessment, spatial planning, early warning and emergency planning.