Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)

Abstract

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a DMDU approach that explicitly includes decision making over time. The essence is proactive and dynamic planning in response to how the future actually unfolds.• DAPP explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. It opens the decision space and helps to overcome policy paralysis due to deep uncertainty.There are different routes that can achieve the objectives under changing conditions (like 'different roads leading to Rome'). • Policy actions have an uncertain design life and might fail sooner or later to continue achieving objectives as the operating conditions change (i.e. they reach an adaptation tipping point (ATP)). Similarly, opportunity tipping points may occur. • Multiple pathways are typically visualized in a metro map or decision tree, with time or changing conditions on one of the axes. • DAPP supports the design of a dynamic adaptive strategy that includes initial actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to identify when to implement the long-term options or revisit decisions. M. Haasnoot (B)Water Resources and Delta Management, Deltares,

Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands

“…Our results confirm the value of high-end scenarios as put forward by Hinkel et al [8,54], but also urge assessment of impacts beyond 2100, especially for areas in the world that are potentially heavily affected by these scenarios and for risk averse decision contexts. An integrated assessment of limits and thresholds to adaptation, as presented in this paper with the adaptation tipping points analysis [14,100], may illuminate that multiple tipping points and thus the identified challenges and decisions may occur in a short time period. Large resources may be needed shortly, not only in terms of financial resources but also capacity of experts and decision makers.…”

“…' To deal with uncertainties about the future and to minimize regret of investment decisions as the future unfolds, decision makers are urged to take an adaptive approach [6][7][8][9]. Over the last years several frameworks have been put forward to design adaptive strategies, including robust decision making [10,11], adaptive policy making [12,13], dynamic adaptive policy pathways [9,14] and engineering options analysis [15,16]. These approaches all share the idea to identify present and future uncertainties, to evaluate vulnerabilities and alternative solutions, to take necessary actions on the short-term, and to monitor changes to gather insights indicating that new decisions or reassessments are required.…”

Back to the future: Viewing a 1992 flood risk study through a 2017 lens

“…It is always a good idea to review policies regularly. In general, the monitoring system should include early warning signals and adaptation signals (Haasnoot et al, ). An early warning signal gives an indication to start preparing the actions that may need to be taken, while an adaptation signal means that an adaptation tipping point (unacceptable performance of the system) is getting close, and the adaptive actions may soon need to be implemented.…”

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

“…Thus, our assessment of needs in this paper 10.1029/2019EF001163 considers both the literature and the wider practical experience of the author team, who has worked on a wide variety of coastal adaptation projects at all scales. Increasingly adaptation planners are also asked to go beyond local considerations or standard cost-benefit analysis and also consider regional to national preferences or other approaches to investment decisions, including recognition of deep uncertainty (e.g., Aerts et al, 2014;Haasnoot, Warren, & Kwakkel, 2019;Hallegatte et al, 2012). Furthermore, information is also needed at the global scale from the mitigation standpoint to understand potential benefits of emission reduction policies in the context of reduced sea level rise and associated impacts and adaptation needs.…”

“…In addition, many stakeholders and decision makers have a strong need for regional to local relative sea level (RSL) information, including vertical land movement. This information allows analysis of the consequences across the range of sea level rise and responses, including issues of timing (Haasnoot, Warren, et al, 2019). Along most coastlines, local sea level changes can differ significantly by up to 20% or more from the global mean change, and together with long-period tidal effects, this can greatly increase the frequency of a given extreme water level event by a factor of 100 or more with 50 cm of sea level rise (Church et al, 2013).…”