Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience

Lyshol, Arne; Nenov, Plamen; Wevelstad, Thea

doi:10.1111/labr.12188

Labour

2021

DOI: 10.1111/labr.12188

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Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience

Arne Lyshol

Plamen Nenov

Thea Wevelstad³

Abstract: We study whether unemployment duration dependence—the negative effect of a current unemployment spell on an individual's employment probability—varies with labor market experience. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Current Population Survey, we show that although there is negative duration dependence for experienced workers, it is mostly absent for new entrants to the labor force. This difference suggests that structural forces in addition to ex ante heterogeneity in job‐finding… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications

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Exploring predictors of welfare dependency 1, 3, and 5 years after mental health-related absence in danish municipalities between 2010 and 2012 using flexible machine learning modelling

Bjerregaard

2023

BMC Public Health

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Background Using XGBoost (XGB), this study demonstrates how flexible machine learning modelling can complement traditional statistical modelling (multinomial logistic regression) as a sensitivity analysis and predictive modelling tool in occupational health research. Design The study predicts welfare dependency for a cohort at 1, 3, and 5 years of follow-up using XGB and multinomial logistic regression (MLR). The models’ predictive ability is evaluated using tenfold cross-validation (internal validation) and geographical validation (semi-external validation). In addition, we calculate and graphically assess Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values from the XGB model to examine deviation from linearity assumptions, including interactions. The study population consists of all 20–54 years old on long-term sickness absence leave due to self-reported common mental disorders (CMD) between April 26, 2010, and September 2012 in 21 (of 98) Danish municipalities that participated in the Danish Return to Work program. The total sample of 19.664 observations is split geospatially into a development set (n = 9.756) and a test set (n = 9.908). Results There were no practical differences in the XGB and MLR models’ predictive ability. Industry, job skills, citizenship, unemployment insurance, gender, and period had limited importance in predicting welfare dependency in both models. On the other hand, welfare dependency history and reason for sickness absence were strong predictors. Graphical SHAP-analysis of the XGB model did not indicate substantial deviations from linearity assumptions implied by the multinomial regression model. Conclusion Flexible machine learning models like XGB can supplement traditional statistical methods like multinomial logistic regression in occupational health research by providing a benchmark for predictive performance and traditional statistical models' ability to capture important associations for a given set of predictors as well as potential violations of linearity. Trial registration ISRCTN43004323.

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Exploring predictors of welfare dependency 1, 3, and 5 years after mental health-related absence in danish municipalities between 2010 and 2012 using flexible machine learning modelling

Bjerregaard

2023

BMC Public Health

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Eu Policies for Sustainable Youth Employment

Serpeninova

Замора

Vynnychenko

et al. 2022

VSDU

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Ensuring employment of young people in the EU and the use of this political and legal experience in Ukrainian realities is a rather urgent issue. The article systematizes and investigates the current state and causes of youth unemployment in EU countries. It was determined that the unemployment rate among young people steadily increased during the period 2008-2013, which affected the EU economy, however, until 2019, a consistent decline was observed. The main factors influencing this indicator are the following: lack of vacancies for inexperienced youth, natural employee turnover, economic downturn, etc. The normative and legal support of youth employment policy was considered, in particular employment policy aimed at post-pandemic recovery. The main regulatory acts of youth employment policy in the EU are defined as European Pact for Youth, Resolution "Youth Employment Crisis: A Call to Action", "Framework Action Program on Youth Employment" and others. European programs and initiatives aimed at reducing youth unemployment, as well as improving education and labour mobility are analysed. The main European programs and initiatives are defined as NextGenerationEU, the Strategy "Youth - investing and providing opportunities", the "Youth opportunities" initiative, "Involvement of youth in employment" and others. They include creating more opportunities for young people in education and employment, improving access and full participation in society, developing skills relevant to the labour market, supporting first work experience and workplace learning, etc. It is emphasized the need to stimulate the economic growth of the EU member states, focusing on the youth segment, implementing employment support programs adapted to the current situation in the world.

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Consequences of COVID-19 on Education and Work of Young Adults: An Expert and Peer Interview Study in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland of Their Perspectives on the Past, Present and Future

Egger

Huber

2022

Youth

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Young adults have experienced significant changes and cutbacks due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated how young adults from Germany, Austria and Switzerland experienced their educational and vocational situation in the past and how they see their current situation and their future. The data was collected through expert and peer interviews, i.e., that some of our 17- to 20-years old interviewees were trained after the expert interview to conduct interviews with their peers themselves. The analysis shows challenges such as concerns over the socially perceived worthlessness of degrees during COVID-19, the prospective fear of difficulty in making contacts when starting in a new place, or the loss of motivation due to perceived omnipresence of school in everyday life. Changes such as a lack of communal celebration of graduation due to the elimination of school-based graduation activities, or developing independence after a distance learning experience due to required personal responsibility, could be seen. They used a variety of coping strategies, for example confrontive coping, distancing, seeking social support or escape-avoidance.

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Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience

Cited by 3 publications

References 47 publications

Exploring predictors of welfare dependency 1, 3, and 5 years after mental health-related absence in danish municipalities between 2010 and 2012 using flexible machine learning modelling

Exploring predictors of welfare dependency 1, 3, and 5 years after mental health-related absence in danish municipalities between 2010 and 2012 using flexible machine learning modelling

Eu Policies for Sustainable Youth Employment

Consequences of COVID-19 on Education and Work of Young Adults: An Expert and Peer Interview Study in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland of Their Perspectives on the Past, Present and Future

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