Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

Yang, Bao; Kang, Shaozhong; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; He, Mingzhu; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Chun

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1962-y

Cited by 63 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…These drought periods are remarkably consistent with the periods of lower maximum snow depth in our results. In addition, the four lower periods are consistent with the drought variability at the Asian summer monsoon fringe, particularly the two severe drought periods (Yang et al, 2014). With regard to decadal changes, the decade with the highest maximum snow depth is the 1860s with an average value of 21.5 cm (+32.7%).…”

Section: Characteristics Of Maximum Snow Depth Over the Past Two Centsupporting

confidence: 50%

Tree-Ring Response to Snow Cover and Reconstruction of Century annual Maximum Snow Depth for Northern Tianshan Mountains, China

et al. 2016

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Heavy snowfall and extreme snow depth cause serious losses of human life and property in the northern Tianshan Mountains almost every winter. Snow cover is an important indicator of climate change. In this study, we developed five tree-ring-width chronologies of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) from the northern Tianshan Mountains using standard dendrochronological methods. Correlation analyses indicated that radial growth of trees in the northern Tianshan Mountains is positively affected by annual maximum snow depth. This relationship was validated and models of annual maximum snow depth back to the 18 th century were developed. The reconstruction explains 48.3% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the 1958/59-2003/04 calibration periods. It indicates that quasi-periodic changes exist on 2.0-4.0-yr, 5.3-yr, 14.0-yr, and 36.0-yr scales. The reconstructed series shows that maximum snow depth exhibits obvious stages change, the periods characterized by lower maximum snow depth were 1809/10-1840/41, 1873/74-1893/94, 1909/10-1929/30, 1964/65-1981/82, and the periods characterized by higher maximum snow depth were 1841/42-1872/73, 1894/95-1908/09, 1930/31-1963/64, and 1982/83-present. The lower period of annual maximum snow depth during the 1920s-1930s is consistent with the severe drought that occurred at this time in northern China. From the 1970s to the present, the maximum snow depth has increased clearly with the change to a warmer and wetter climate in Xinjiang. The reconstruction sheds new light on snow cover variability and change in a region where the climate history for the past several centuries is poorly understood.

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Section: Characteristics Of Maximum Snow Depth Over the Past Two Centsupporting

confidence: 50%

Tree-Ring Response to Snow Cover and Reconstruction of Century annual Maximum Snow Depth for Northern Tianshan Mountains, China

et al. 2016

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“…2c), especially on the North China Plain and in the Jiang-Huai area in the 1580s, 1610s, and 1630s (Zheng et al 2006). This aridification was also significant at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (Yang et al 2014). Meanwhile, more severe droughts and heavy floods (Table S1 of the electronic supplementary material, ESM) occurred for frequent climatic variations and large inter-annual variability, in every sub-region of eastern China during 1581-1644 (Ge 2011).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

et al. 2014

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Based on the reconstructed temperatures, precipitation changes, and occurrences of extreme climate events, together with historical records on fiscal deterioration, food crises, and the frequencies of popular unrest, rebellions and wars, we identified three principal ways in which climate change contributed to the collapse in the Ming dynasty. Firstly, cooling, aridification, and desertification during a cold period destroyed the military farm system, which was the main supply system for the provisioning of government troops on the northern frontiers; these impacts increased the military expenditure from 64 % of total government expenditure in 1548-1569 to 76 % in 1570-1589 and thus aggravated the national fiscal crisis that occurred during the late Ming dynasty. Secondly, climate deterioration (e.g., cooling, aridification, and an increase in the frequencies of frost-and drought-related disasters, etc.) led to a 20-50 % reduction in the per capita production of raw grain in most areas of China, which resulted in widespread food crises and exacerbated the vulnerability of social structures during the last several decades of the Ming dynasty. Thirdly, the severe droughts occurring in 1627-1643 were a key trigger to the peasantry uprising. These droughts also played a significant role to promote the peasantry uprising, especially reviving the peasantry troops by recruitment of famine victims when they nearly perished in 1633 and 1638, and severely disrupting the food supply for the government troops, resulting in the final defeat of the government troops by the peasantry troops. This study contributes to an understanding of the climate-related mechanisms Climatic Change behind the collapse of the Ming dynasty, and provides a historical case study that enhances our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and social vulnerability.

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“…There are weak correlations between the reconstructions in eastern China even though the correlation coefficients are significant in some regions. The MADA is not consistent with the DWI records in eastern China, since only very few and short treering width chronologies in eastern China are used to reconstruct the MADA (Yang et al, 2013a(Yang et al, , 2014aKang et al, 2014;Zheng et al, 2014b;Ge et al, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract.The dominant modes of variability of precipitation for the whole of China over the past millennium and the mechanism governing their spatial structure remain unclear. This is mainly due to insufficient high-resolution proxy records of precipitation in western China. Numerous treering chronologies have recently been archived in publicly available databases through PAGES2k activities, and these provide an opportunity to refine precipitation field reconstructions for China. Based on 479 proxy records, including 371 tree-ring width chronologies, a tree-ring isotope chronology, and 107 drought/flood indices, we reconstruct the precipitation field for China for the past half millennium using the optimal information extraction method. A total of 3631 of 4189 grid points in the reconstruction field passed the cross-validation process, accounting for 86.68 % of the total number of grid points. The first leading mode of variability of the reconstruction shows coherent variations over most of China. The second mode is a north-south dipole in eastern China characterized by variations of the same sign in western China and northern China (except for Xinjiang province). It is likely controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The third mode is a "sandwich" triple mode in eastern China including variations of the same sign in western China and central China. The last two modes are reproduced by most of the six coupled climate models' last millennium simulations performed in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). In particular, the link of the second mode with ENSO is confirmed by the models. However, there is a mismatch between models and proxy reconstructions in the time development of different modes. This mismatch suggests the important role of internal variability in the reconstructed precipitation mode variations of the past 500 years.

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Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

Cited by 63 publications

References 82 publications

Tree-Ring Response to Snow Cover and Reconstruction of Century annual Maximum Snow Depth for Northern Tianshan Mountains, China

Tree-Ring Response to Snow Cover and Reconstruction of Century annual Maximum Snow Depth for Northern Tianshan Mountains, China

How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

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