How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

Abstract

Based on the reconstructed temperatures, precipitation changes, and occurrences of extreme climate events, together with historical records on fiscal deterioration, food crises, and the frequencies of popular unrest, rebellions and wars, we identified three principal ways in which climate change contributed to the collapse in the Ming dynasty. Firstly, cooling, aridification, and desertification during a cold period destroyed the military farm system, which was the main supply system for the provisioning of government troops on the northern frontiers; these impacts increased the military expenditure from 64 % of total government expenditure in 1548-1569 to 76 % in 1570-1589 and thus aggravated the national fiscal crisis that occurred during the late Ming dynasty. Secondly, climate deterioration (e.g., cooling, aridification, and an increase in the frequencies of frost-and drought-related disasters, etc.) led to a 20-50 % reduction in the per capita production of raw grain in most areas of China, which resulted in widespread food crises and exacerbated the vulnerability of social structures during the last several decades of the Ming dynasty. Thirdly, the severe droughts occurring in 1627-1643 were a key trigger to the peasantry uprising. These droughts also played a significant role to promote the peasantry uprising, especially reviving the peasantry troops by recruitment of famine victims when they nearly perished in 1633 and 1638, and severely disrupting the food supply for the government troops, resulting in the final defeat of the government troops by the peasantry troops. This study contributes to an understanding of the climate-related mechanisms Climatic Change behind the collapse of the Ming dynasty, and provides a historical case study that enhances our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and social vulnerability.

To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

“…Based on China's long and continuous history and rich historical ‘big data’, by studying historical events, some researchers have demonstrated that there are myriad explanations for the occurrence of historical social events and that there are still a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of climate change on human socioeconomic development (Zhang, 1982; Fang et al ., 2013; Zheng et al ., 2014). Thus, the impact of, and response to, climate change cannot be summarized as a simple cause‐and‐effect relationship.…”

“…Additionally, the impact of climate change also involves a complex feedback relationship. Climate change affects grain quantity, which affects not only the sensitivity of the society to climate change by directly affecting the sufficiency of food and clothing but also the capacity of the society to respond to climate change by affecting socioeconomic conditions (Zhang et al ., 2007; Zheng et al ., 2014; Su et al ., 2018) (Fig. 1).…”

“…Socioecological systems are processes that constantly interact with one another and continuously advance human systems (Gallopin, 1991; Turner et al ., 2003). Whether the development of human systems is dominated by natural or socioeconomic factors is a challenging topic, and there is no consensus in the available research (Zhang, 1982; Yancheva et al ., 2007a,b; Zhang, 2008; Cheng et al ., 2010; Fan, 2010; Zhang et al ., 2010; Fang et al ., 2013; Zheng et al ., 2014).…”

“…Some social events were notably in synchrony or were closely and intricately correlated with climate change. For example, studies have found that climate change has had an impact on agricultural production, population migration, economic fluctuation and peasant uprisings, and has even led to the replacement of dynasties, social vicissitudes and civilization collapse (Weiss and Bradley, 2001; Zhang et al ., 2007, 2015; Lee and Zhang, 2010; Butzer, 2012; Amorosi et al ., 2013; Hsiang et al ., 2013; Buckley et al ., 2014; Chung et al ., 2014; Pei and Zhang, 2014; Pei et al ., 2016; Welc and Marks, 2014; Zheng et al ., 2014). These studies have explained the natural factors leading to the occurrence of historical events (deMenocal, 2001; Haug et al ., 2003; Büntgen et al ., 2011).…”

A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

“…Rapid cooling accompanied by large-scale desertification began in the 1620s and had a devastating effect on agricultural production Yin et al, 2015). Zheng et al (2014) noted that the total grain yield in Shanxi in the 1630s ranged from 1219.8 × 10 6 to 1951.3 × 10 6 kg, a reduction of almost 50 % compared to the yield in ∼ 1580 of (2439.1 × 10 6 kg). The population increased from 8.42 to 9.50 million during this period and it seemed that widespread famines would be unavoidable given the additional factor that governmental disaster relief did not function due to political corruption in the late Ming Xiao et al, 2015).…”